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Over the last two weeks we've been previewing each of the divisions through the eyes of the Winning Stats. If you missed any of our previews, here's where you can find them:
All that leaves now is picking who will play in the Conference Championship games, and who will play and win the Super Bowl. Let's look at the NFC first:
| Team | Conf. Prob | SB Prob. | Conf. Odds | SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 27.9% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 6.7% |
| Seahawks | 21.5% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 12.5% |
| 49ers | 13.8% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 11.8% |
| Cardinals | 11.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Eagles | 10.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Panthers | 4.3% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Rams | 2.4% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Lions | 2.0% | 0.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Bears | 1.3% | 0.4% | 11.8% | 6.7% |
| Falcons | 1.0% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Cowboys | 0.9% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Packers | 0.8% | 0.3% | 14.3% | 9.1% |
| Vikings | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Giants | 0.6% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Buccaneers | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Redskins | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
The two teams most likely to play for a trip to Super Bowl XLIX look to be the Saints and Seahawks. We have already seen what the Seahawks can do, and for one week it certainly looks like they can repeat what they did last year. But I think, as does the Winning Stats, that the Saints will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. A favorable schedule and home-field advantage, especially for these two teams, will be the deciding factor. The Saints will have more wins, host the title game, and go on to the Super Bowl.
The cells in yellow are values that are better than what Vegas is giving us. Earlier in the offseason the numbers for the Saints were promising, but they've come down and it's no longer worth the risk. The Packers are probably higher than what they're being shown here, and it'll be reflected once we get a few weeks of data in the system. But for now, it's not a fan of Green Bay.
Here's the AFC picture:
| Team | Conf. Prob | SB Prob. | Conf. Odds | SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 31.5% | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Chargers | 15.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% |
| Colts | 14.3% | 6.4% | 14.3% | 6.7% |
| Broncos | 10.9% | 5.2% | 30.8% | 13.3% |
| Bills | 9.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Steelers | 5.7% | 2.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Jets | 3.9% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Chiefs | 3.2% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Patriots | 3.1% | 1.2% | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| Titans | 1.9% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Ravens | 0.3% | 0.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Texans | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Dolphins | 0.2% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Jaguars | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Raiders | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Browns | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
If you read my other previews, you know how high the Winning Stats are on the Bengals, Chargers and Bills. So it should be no shock to you that their boxes show up green here as Vegas bets. It especially likes the Bengals, coming out on top of the AFC, defeating the Chargers in the Championship game. Yes, I know the Bengals haven't won a Playoff game in ages, but I think this is the year. You can also see the Colts have the third best Super Bowl odds in the AFC, besting both the Broncos and Patriots, who are the Vegas favorites.
The boxes above in green are our bets, getting both the Bengals and Chargers to win Super Bowl at 40/1 and the Bills at 100/1. I'll also take the Bengals at 14/1 to win AFC and Bills 40/1 to win AFC. The Winning Stats love these teams, especially at those odds.
So our Super Bowl pits the Bengals against the Saints, and we'll take the Bengals to win the Super Bowl. Let's see how we do.