2014 AFC Championship: Inside the Colts Numbers

Well, that went exactly opposite the plan we all wanted, eh?

The Colts were completely outmatched, outplayed, and outcoached in a 45-7 pasting at the hands of the Patriots Sunday, and it was just as ugly as the score indicated. In fact, it's the first game of the last three against the Patriots where the score accurately showed how the game went. In the last two the Colts seemed to hang around later into the game, even though they were being dominated in much the same way as they were Sunday. Maybe this is finally the game where the coaching staff and the players get the fact there is an abyss between them and the Patriots.

The Colts did have one big-boy drive of 93 yards in the middle of the 2nd quarter, a glimmer of hope after a nice interception by D'Qwell Jackson, that cut the lead to 14-7, and the Defense made a mini-stand inside the 10 yard line, holding them to a field goal just before the half, making the halftime lead just 17-7. But just like in Week 11, the Patriots scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives to open the second half, and the game was over before the end of the third quarter. It certainly reinforces the notion that it's always better to defer the opening coin toss (like the Patriots did), as you can put a team away before they have any chance of mounting a comeback.

I talked Thursday about how I was interested to see the Chess match between the Patriots Offense and Colts Defense, and I didn't know which strategy either team would employ. Well, the Patriots had the exact same gameplan as we've seen the last two years against the Colts, and the Colts employed the exact same gameplan we've seen the last two years against the Patriots. Unless the coaching staff subscribes to a different definition of insanity than the rest of the world, we saw exactly what should have been expected. Maybe next time they'll put an extra defender in the box and force the receivers to beat them deep, rather than letting them go unattended over the middle. Or we'll all just go insane again...

I'll show you the numbers for completeness, but they are pretty much a carbon-copy of the Playoff game there a year ago:

Non-Adjusted Stats for the AFC Championship:

Adjusted Stats for the AFC Championship:

Some thoughts:

• With only four teams playing this week, seeing so many "4"s in the rank columns isn't a good thing, is it? This was the worst Playoff game of 2014 (yes, even worse than the Cardinals vs. the Panthers), as well as the worst Defensive effort of the Playoffs. Never had a chance. It was still better than 41-0 though, so yay?
  
• You aren't beating very many teams, let alone a Super Bowl team, when you average just 1.5 yards per play through the air. It was less than what the Seahawks did earlier on Sunday, which I thought was damn near impossible (2.2 yards).
• There was a huge disparity on Starting Field Position (15 yards per drive!), which has led to bad things in 2014, and always has in the Playoffs. Can't give other teams short fields (unless you have a historically great Defense Seahawks) and expect to win.
• The Colts succeeded in their lone trip in the Red Zone. One shining moment...
• It's eerie how close these numbers are to the Playoff game last year against the Patriots. In all Playoff games since 2001 they ranked 282 (last) vs. 278 on Offense, 275 (last) vs. 284 on Defense, and 300 (last) vs. 299 overall out of 306 games. Two historically awful Playoff performances all-around.

Season Stats through AFC Championship (Adjusted):

Week-to-Week Comparisons:

Sunday didn't tell us anything we didn't already know about the 2014 Colts; namely, that when the opposing QB was in the upper-echelon (and not injured), the Colts were hopeless on Defense. Add in a putrid passing day, and you get what we saw in Foxboro. I know we all hoped the Colts had turned a corner after the Broncos game, but I think it showed just how injured Peyton Manning was (and how poor of a gameplan they had). It's clear there's still a long way to go for the Colts, even just one step away from the Super Bowl.

The sting of losing that bad to a team we all despise can be a tough pill to swallow. But the Colts, for the third straight year, advanced one step farther in the Playoffs than the previous year. They won all the game they were supposed to win, and really struggled against top-tier QBs. Hopefully these games are where the coaching staff starts work this offseason, as you can't win in today's NFL if you can't stop Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Ben Roethlisberger.

On the whole, however, 2014 was a very successful season for the Colts, even though it fell short of the ultimate goal. Let's all hope they build on it, continuing the practice of going farther each season.