2014 NFL Wild Card Round: Inside the Colts Numbers

There was no need for a miraculous comeback in the Wild Card Round this year, as the Colts took care of business rather convincingly Sunday, a 26-10 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. With the win, the Colts will travel to Denver next Sunday afternoon to take on the Broncos in the Divisional Round.

Sunday wasn't quite the near-perfect performance the first time these two teams met, but it still was quite impressive, especially the second half. We saw some dumb penalties, a couple fumbles from Boom Herron, and some missed tackles, but I think the game pretty much went the way I thought it would. I said on Thursday that the game would be won or lost with Andrew Luck, and he was magnificent, even when his receivers (once again) let him down. We'll get to his stats shortly, but if he continues to play like he did today, the Colts will hang around against anyone.

I was a bit miffed when the Colts won the coin toss and chose to receive, and I had both philosophical and empirical reasons to think so. I always like trying to get an extra possession in the 2nd half, where your chances of improving your win probability is increased, mostly because it's closer to the end of the game. Also, playing Defense at home gets the crowd into the game immediately, especially against a depleted Bengals Offense. Add in this stat: The Colts did not have a first-possession TD at all in 2014. Yes, as good as this Offense has been at times, they never had an opening drive touchdown. Well, they proved me wrong with a 71 yard 9 play drive, capped off by a two yard TD by Herron. It worked out Sunday. Please defer if you win the toss this Sunday, Coach Pagano.

A couple of notes from Elias from Sunday:

• Dan Herron, a 6th Round pick of the Bengals in 2012, became only the third player in NFL history to lead a postseason game in rushing yards (56) against a former team. Also, with his 10 receptions, he became the 4th RB to lead his team in receptions against a former team, joining the likes of Hershel Walker and Ricky Watters.
• Adam Vinatieri, with his four FGs, extended his insurmountable lead in career postseason field goals to 55, now leading by 16 over the next closest kicker, David Akers. Also, no other active kicker has more than 20. He's good.

How did the stats look on Sunday? Let's dive in and take a look:

Non-Adjusted Stats for the Wild Card Round:

Adjusted Stats for the Wild Card Round:

Some thoughts:

• Look what Andrew Luck did, only leading the weekend in ANPY/A at over 9.5 yards per attempt. Easily the best game of this season, and one of the best games of his career against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Just think how big that number would have been without the 4 or 5 drops...
• One of the reasons Luck looked a lot better Sunday was he checked down to Boom Herron at lot more than he did in the regular season, and it worked out great. Well, other than the two fumbles, which were not good. I think this week Herron should go old-school and carry a football everywhere he goes, and everyone that comes by him tries to knock it away.
• I'm not as concerned about the four FGs the Colts kicked, as the Bengals were ranked 2nd in the NFL coming in. Getting the opening TD was a good sign, and it obviously would have been better to cash in with at least one other TD, but it gives them something to work on this week, where they'll absolutely need 7s instead of 3s.
• The Defense in the first half wasn't great, wasn't all that bad, but they clearly made all the right adjustments for the second half, as they only allowed four First Downs, and got four Three and Outs. It's how you play, and keep, a 2nd half lead. An excellent job by the Defense.
• The Orange/Red Zone Defense number is a bit skewed, as the Bengals only got inside the Colts 35 once, and they scored a touchdown on that trip, so technically it is a 100%. I'd rather they only get one trip in there and score a TD, then let them get in there four or five times and kick a few FGs.
  
• The Colts had the worst Rush Defense of the weekend. When everyone and their mother knew the Bengals were going to run with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. And it really mattered to how the game ended up, right?

Season Stats through the Wild Card Round (Adjusted):

A thought:

• Not much changed here, with only eight teams playing this week, so there's not much to talk about. The Colts overall rank moved up to 6th, with the five teams ahead of them all still alive in the Playoffs (Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, Cowboys).
  

Week-to-Week Comparison:

The Offense we saw early in the season finally showed up after a couple months off, and it was easily the best game the Colts have played since the first Bengals game. The Bengals were clearly short-handed, so it certainly played a part in the Colts playing so well, but it's a good sign that they could "turn it on" when they needed it the most, since they haven't really played well for a long while. Let's hope the same team shows up in Denver next weekend.