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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 6: Safely In Control

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. After three straight AFC South wins, the Colts look pretty good for a Playoff spot.

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Last week we talked about how important the Colts Thursday night game in Houston was for their Playoff chances. A loss would put them into essentially a tie with the Texans for the division title, but a win would bury the Texans and make the Colts the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC South, despite Andrew Luck missing two games and generally not playing all that well.

The Colts won 27-20, and sure enough they're now in a really good spot to win the AFC South.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 8.5 0.9% 3.2% 11.7% 50.1% 0.4% 1.2% 65.9% 4.0% 1.7% 67.5%
Titans 7.3 0.1% 0.6% 3.0% 20.8% 0.7% 1.9% 24.4% 0.7% 2.6% 27.0%
Jaguars 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 5.6% 0.2% 0.8% 6.1% 0.1% 1.0% 7.1%
Texans 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.4% 4.0%

At 66%, the Colts are sitting pretty, with the next closest team, the Titans, at just under 25%. You can also see where the loss to the Colts put the Texans, who are now at just 3.5% to win the Division. You can also see the Colts are most likely destined to be the #4 seed, which makes sense seeing as the Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos all lead their divisions and are undefeated. If you want to dream, the Colts have about a 1% chance to get home field. I'm guessing that'll be mostly gone with a loss Sunday night, but for you optimists there's hope.

The Colts at 67.5% chance of making the Playoffs is the second lowest of any of the division leaders, with the NFC East as the only division that is truly wide open. The Giants (44%) have a slight lead over the Redskins (30%), with the other two teams still within shouting distance. Obviously the Cowboys have a slight advantage if they can manage to win a game without injured stars Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, but for now it sees the Giants as the most likely winner. The Packers lead all teams with a 98% chance of making the Playoffs, with the Patriots (97%) and Bengals (96%) joining them as virtual locks for the Playoffs. A little surprising is the team with the least chance of making the Playoffs: the Saints. A combination of not playing well, being in a division with two undefeated teams and a tough remaining schedule have them at just 0.4% chance of making the Playoffs. Very interesting.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Patriots 80.7% 16.1% 86.9% 53.5% 30.4% 14.9%
Bengals 89.1% 6.9% 86.4% 50.9% 27.8% 13.5%
Broncos 68.8% 12.6% 57.3% 27.7% 12.9% 5.6%
Raiders 18.3% 26.6% 29.0% 15.3% 8.3% 4.2%
Jets 14.7% 49.1% 37.3% 15.1% 6.2% 2.4%
Chargers 12.6% 13.1% 14.0% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2%
Colts 65.9% 1.7% 31.4% 10.8% 3.8% 1.2%
Steelers 6.5% 19.6% 14.3% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0%
Bills 4.5% 34.9% 18.7% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7%
Browns 4.0% 10.4% 7.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Titans 24.4% 2.6% 11.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Ravens 0.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 6.1% 1.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Texans 3.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Chiefs 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

The Colts jumped from 0.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl last week to 1.2%, so while it did go up, it's still a pretty long shot. The Patriots and Bengals are big favorites to make the AFC Title game, and are 2nd and 3rd in Super Bowl odds behind the Packers (29.2%).