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2015 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 6

Each week we'll predict each game using the Winning Stats, as well as make picks as if we're competing in the Las Vegas SuperContest.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Winning Stats Predictor took a small step backwards last week, going just 5-8-1 Against the Spread in what turned out to be a rough week. We had three of our sweetspot 60+% plays with the Raiders, Lions, and Cowboys, and all 3 ended up losers, which will happen from time to time. The key is to trust that these picks win in the long run, so a short run of losers is expected and no reason to change our picks. Season total ATS is now 39-35-3.

It was a really good week picking winners, however, going an impressive 11-3 to bring our season total up to 48-29 (62.3%). We're not off to the greatest of starts in Week 6 after the Falcons fell on Thursday night. There are several more toss-up games this week than last, so hopefully we can capitalize and spread ourselves from others.

SuperContest picks went 2-3 thanks to our 3 Home Dog losers, but we we hit both the Redskins and Bears, who were outright winners in Kansas City. This week was by far the toughest week to find 5 games, as we've now settled out on data so the margins are much slimmer. I also go against the Predictor for the first time this season. Season record is 16-9.

  • Browns +4.5 vs. Broncos
    Here's our home underdog getting too many points. The Broncos Defense looks to be the best in the NFL, but Peyton Manning and the Offense are still living on some reputation with these lines. Think the Browns hang around all day, much like the Raiders last week. Hopefully we don't get beat on a Pick-6 yet again.
  • Bengals -3.5 at Bills
    This is not a normal play for me, taking a road favorite against a pretty good team, but I think the Bills QB change to E.J. Manual, coupled with the high level of play on both sides of the ball by the Bengals means a move to 6-0 for Cincinnati. Definitely worried about this game more than any other this week though.
  • Vikings -4 vs. Chiefs
    Vikings off a bye week against a team that blew a double digit 4th quarter lead last week. To the Bears. Think this turns into a shootout with the Vikings pulling away at the end.
  • Patriots -7.5 at Colts
    Going against the Predictor, as there are too many human factors happening here. Read why I feel this way here.
  • Giants +4.5 at Eagles
    I'll take more than a FG in a division game with a team I think is better than the favorite. This is a game a typical Giants team will win outright, so I'll definitely take the points.

Here are the rest of the Week 6 picks:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Saints 25 Falcons 31 63.6%
Browns 19 Broncos 20 51.1%
Lions 26 Bears 25 51.5%
Jaguars 19 Texans 18 52.5%
Bills 18 Bengals 25 67.0%
Jets 23 Redskins 19 58.7%
Vikings 33 Chiefs 25 71.0%
Steelers 19 Cardinals 22 59.5%
Titans 21 Dolphins 17 62.8%
Seahawks 22 Panthers 14 70.6%
49ers 23 Ravens 25 56.7%
Packers 29 Chargers 21 70.7%
Colts 27 Patriots 32 63.1%
Eagles 21 Giants 20 52.8%