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2015 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 4

Each week we'll predict each game using the Winning Stats, as well as make picks as if we're competing in the Las Vegas SuperContest.

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Week 3 of the NFL season saw a bit of normalcy, especially after the wackiness of Week 2, and the Winning Stats Predictor was quite successful picking winners. The Predictor went 13-3 last week, bringing the season total to 29-19. Need a few more weeks like that to get to where we want to be, but a really nice bounce-back week. Against the Spread was a bit sub-par at 7-9, bringing our season total to 24-23-1. Time for a good week again.

The Predictor is still factoring in the last couple weeks of the 2014 season, and within two weeks we'll be exclusively using 2015 data. One thing that has improved dramatically since I started incorporating some previous year's data is the totals. The last two weeks I hope at least one person tailed some of the totals, as they've gone 24-8, including a 13-3 last week. Last year early on in the season there were also quite a few really good weeks to start the season. It progressively gets harder as the season goes on and the Vegas numbers get more and more refined, but it's pretty neat to nail these early season bets.

My SuperContest picks went 3-2, with the only loss on Sunday being by a single lousy point with the Colts. Season total is now 11-4. Here are my Week 4 picks:

  • Jets -1.5 vs. Dolphins (London)
    The Dolphins haven't cared about any game so far this year, especially last week in their home opener against the Bills, and now travel across the Atlantic to play a division "home" game against the Jets. I don't see how they care this week either.
  • Panthers -3 at Buccaneers
    Fourth straight week I'm taking the Panthers, who are 3-0 Against the Spread this year, and still only giving 3 points in Tampa. I'm really high on the Panthers. Keep the train rolling.
  • Texans +6 at Falcons
    While the Falcons are 3-0, they haven't been all that impressive. I think the Texans win this game straight up, even with the Colts on tap Thursday night, possibly without Andrew Luck. It's anti-conventional wisdom, but still really like it.
  • Redskins +3 vs. Eagles
    The Redskins won in this exact spot a year ago, beating the Eagles as a home underdog. The weather will cause Kirk Cousins to hand the ball off early and often, which is good news for the Redskins.
  • Cowboys +3 at Saints
    I really don't trust the Saints. I don't trust them enough to bet on Brandon Weeden on the road. Think Cowboys win outright in the Superdome, where the Saints have lost six straight times.

Here are the rest of my Week 4 picks:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Steelers 29 Ravens 26 56.9%
Dolphins 21 Jets 27 65.2%
Bears 23 Raiders 29 66.9%
Falcons 23 Texans 24 52.0%
Bills 26 Giants 19 67.8%
Colts 28 Jaguars 22 65.4%
Bengals 26 Chiefs 20 66.2%
Redskins 21 Eagles 23 56.5%
Buccaneers 17 Panthers 28 76.0%
Chargers 26 Browns 21 63.6%
49ers 23 Packers 31 70.6%
Cardinals 23 Rams 16 66.3%
Broncos 24 Vikings 19 62.9%
Saints 25 Cowboys 30 63.0%
Seahawks 28 Lions 20 70.2%