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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 7: Hanging Tough

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Even with the loss, the Colts maintain a stranglehold on the AFC South.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Usually when you suffer a loss it means a significant drop in Playoff odds, especially early on in the season. Thankfully for the Colts, because they weren't supposed to win last Sunday against the Patriots, it didn't do too much to their Playoff chances. It did, however, put their average win total below .500.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 7.5 0.0% 0.6% 6.5% 51.3% 0.0% 0.5% 58.4% 0.6% 0.5% 58.9%
Texans 6.6 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 25.1% 0.1% 0.9% 27.6% 0.3% 1.0% 28.5%
Titans 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 11.1% 0.0% 0.2% 11.6% 0.0% 0.2% 11.8%
Jaguars 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6%

As you can see the odds of the Colts making the Playoffs currently sits at 59%, down from 67.5% before last week. They still hold a big edge over the rest of their AFC South rivals. We do see the Texans, thanks to their win in Jacksonville, jump back into second place from the basement, while the Jaguars now have just a 2.5% of winning the division. As I mentioned earlier, the Colts now are on pace for just 7.5 wins, which obviously is below .500. That's not a very good sign, but thanks to the crappy division, they still are in the driver's seat to host a Playoff game.

Thanks to the Jets continuing their great play (the Winning Stats have them at #1 in the Power Rankings), they are now favored to win the AFC East over the Patriots, and both teams are well over 90% to make the Playoffs. The 6th seed in the AFC is pretty wide open, with the Steelers holding a slight edge over the Raiders and Chargers. In the NFC East, the Eagles now have ~60% chance of making the Playoffs, but that division is still wide open thanks to crappy play by everyone (sound familiar?).

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Jets 55.7% 40.3% 83.2% 50.6% 29.3% 17.3%
Bengals 86.8% 10.5% 87.9% 53.2% 29.6% 15.7%
Patriots 43.0% 50.0% 71.9% 37.0% 18.4% 8.8%
Broncos 77.1% 7.5% 51.9% 19.9% 7.5% 3.0%
Steelers 11.1% 35.2% 27.4% 12.0% 5.0% 2.2%
Raiders 11.1% 15.6% 15.0% 6.3% 2.7% 1.1%
Colts 58.4% 0.5% 20.9% 6.4% 2.1% 0.7%
Chargers 11.4% 8.0% 10.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Texans 27.6% 1.0% 10.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5%
Dolphins 0.7% 12.0% 6.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Browns 1.9% 6.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3%
Bills 0.6% 9.8% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Titans 11.6% 0.2% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Ravens 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Chiefs 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jaguars 2.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

The Jets and Bengals now sit atop the AFC in terms of Super Bowl odds, thanks in large part to the sub-par game they played against an underachieving Colts team. You'll also notice that despite the 6-0 record for the Broncos, they have just a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl, thanks to having the 32nd ranked Offense. The Colts came down about half a percent to 0.7% to win the Super Bowl. The overall favorite remains the Packers, who are at 23% to win it all.