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2015 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 8

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Each week we'll predict each game using the Winning Stats, as well as make picks as if we're competing in the Las Vegas SuperContest.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

It was a so-so week for the Winning Stats Predictor last week both picking winners and Against the Spread. For the second consecutive week it went 8-6 picking winners, bringing our season total to 64-41 on the season (61%). We're kind of treading water for now, waiting for a really good amount of data. About two weeks left. Against the Spread we went 7-7, bringing our season total to 51-50-4. A little behind schedule.

Our SuperContest picks went 3-2, bringing our season total to 22-13, so at least the picks at the top level are hitting at a really good clip. The game that was the most interesting was the Jets-Patriots game, and you got both the highs and the lows, no matter which side you were on. The Jets were covering the 9 points the entire game, until the Patriots scored a TD with just over a minute remaining, putting them up 30-20, and now covering the spread. Gut punch. But the Jets moved down the field, and got into position to try a 50 yard field goal with 23 seconds left. Like the Patriots always seem to do, they get the Jets to jump early, now making it a 55 yard FG for Nick Folk. It didn't matter, as he piped it with plenty to spare, putting the Jets back within the number. This is the absolutely right way to try and tie the game, by the way, getting the field goal immediately once you can. You have to get an onside kick either way (which they recovered), so best to save as much time as possible and kick the FG first. Really happy it paid off a lot of people too.

These games are getting harder and harder to pick too. Five of the 14 games are within 1 point of the spread, and only six of the games are more than 2 points apart. Let's hope it doesn't mean the wins stop coming.

  • Dolphins +8 at Patriots
    I'm going to buy into the Dolphins not being the disaster they were before their bye week, even though all they've done is blow out the Titans and Texans. Short week might help them get there.
  • Buccaneers +7 at Falcons
    This is a good match-up for the Buccaneers stat-wise, and the Bucs haven't been all that terrible, even though they've continued to lose. Division game getting a touchdown sounds good to me.
  • Bengals PK at Steelers
    I'll take the undefeated team coming off a bye week against the team who is getting their injured QB back. This Bengals team is different, and this line seems off.
  • Packers -3 at Broncos
    The lowest scoring game of the weekend, which is how most of the Bronco games are going to be going forward. Our margins are razor thin now, and I think Aaron Rodgers does enough against the Denver Defense to win by more than 3.
  • Panthers -7 vs. Colts
    I'll have a full preview Friday. I don't think it'll be pretty, even though this is a decent letdown spot for the Panthers.

Here are the rest of the Week 8 picks:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Patriots 31 Dolphins 26 62.3%
Chiefs 30 Lions 24 63.7%
Bears 23 Vikings 24 52.7%
Browns 22 Cardinals 28 65.8%
Ravens 30 Chargers 29 51.9%
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 26 52.1%
Saints 27 Giants 24 56.6%
Texans 24 Titans 23 51.5%
Steelers 23 Bengals 30 68.3%
Rams 23 49ers 16 68.1%
Raiders 20 Jets 23 55.9%
Cowboys 20 Seahawks 27 66.9%
Broncos 16 Packers 21 63.6%
Panthers 28 Colts 18 75.8%