2015 NFL Week 4: Inside the Colts Numbers - Disaster Avoided

What took the Colts 14 tries in 2011 took just once in 2015: winning a game without their franchise Quarterback. The Andrew Luck-less Colts somehow managed to defeat the Jaguars Sunday 16-13 in Overtime, thanks to some timely stops by the Defense, a couple big plays in overtime, and 3 (!) missed field goals late in the game by the Non-Josh-Scobee Jags kicker, Jason Myers. To be honest, I thought it couldn't be done (win without Luck), but I guess if there's a team (or teams) that it could work against, they'd have to play in the AFC South. Woof.

One of the reasons the Colts were able to pull out a victory Sunday was that Matt Hasselbeck played better than expected for a guy who hadn't taken a meaningful snap in almost three years. He made sure he got rid of the ball quickly, ensuring he didn't take many hits, and didn't turn the ball over (although others still did), which is really all you could have asked for. He also found a favorite receiver in TE Coby Fleener, who made several big plays, including one in Overtime that got the Colts into Field Goal range on the final drive.

Elias had a couple notes on the accomplishments Hasselbeck enjoyed Sunday:

• Only two other players in their 40s threw as many passes as Hasselbeck in one game (47) without throwing an INT: Vinny Testaverde for the Cowboys in 2004 (50 passes) and Brett Favre for the Vikings in 2009 (48).
• Only four other NFL quarterbacks started a game in their 40s after at least two years without starting: George Blanda (1968 Raiders - W), Vince Evans (1995 Raiders - W), Steve DeBerg (1998 Falcons - L), and Warren Moon (2000 Chiefs - L).

Because we had seen him do it in the past, I had a sneaking suspicion that Chuck Pagano was going to try and "ice the kicker" at the end of regulation, and I'm really curious, especially if the Colts only win the division by a game, if that decision could have spelled the nail in the coffin, so to speak, in Pagano's tenure in Indianapolis. Luckily for him he was bailed out by a couple of feet, but it was really close to going through the second time around.

I think there are times that taking a timeout in that situation can be beneficial. First off, the team getting ready to kick must have taken a timeout already before the kick. This means the kicking team isn't being rushed onto the field with a set time limit, where the smallest thing could throw off the kicker's routine. The kicker can compose himself, take his time, get a few "practice swings", and get mentally ready without being rushed. This, of course, was not the case Sunday, as the Jaguars had no timeouts left. Secondly, it needs to be a medium range kick or shorter. Kickers (for the most part) are better than they've ever been, so icing him and allowing him to take a practice kick needs to be in a range where they'll still hit it most of the time, but making them do it twice puts it in a manageable range. For example, the odds of making an 80% kick (45ish yards) twice is just 64%, and you have to count on the kicker making his practice kick. From 50+, however, the odds are already in the opponents favor, as the majority of kickers are 50% or less from that range. Even though Myers had made one from 50+ already this year, making it in a game-winning situation was something he'd never faced before. I don't think "icing" is a never, but it certainly was not a good call Sunday.

How did the numbers look from Sunday? Let's take a look and see.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 4:

Adjusted Stats for Week 4:

Some thoughts:

• This was one of the 10 worst games played so far this season, based on the Winning Stats, yet somehow the Colts found a way to win. While their play wasn't impressive, winning certainly was.
• Two more turnovers, one each for the top 2 running backs. Is it just me, or does there seem to be way more fumbles inside the opponents 3 yard line this year, both college and NFL? It seems like every game I watch now it seems to happen, and Frank Gore has done it twice in the past 3 games. It should have cost the Colts the game.
• The Colts did convert a pretty good percentage of 3rd/4th Downs, which was made look worse in the adjusted numbers by just how bad the Jaguars Defense is at stopping them, but maybe that gave the Offense enough confidence to win. Always good to see multiple conversions.
• One thing I rarely talk about from these tables are Penalties, but I think they played a big part Sunday. From our friend Kyle Rodriguez:
  
  

  On the Colts' lone TD drive of Sunday, 42 of 80 yards came from Jaguars' penalties, as did five of six first downs (three on 3rd down).

  — Kyle J. Rodriguez (@ColtsAuth_Kyle) October 5, 2015

  
  You can see the drive stats weren't very good, but the Penalty numbers were both in the Colts favor. Their best drive, by far, was the one where Gore fumbled. Just how the season's gone so far.
• It made sense that the Jaguars would load up the box and force Hasselbeck to beat them, and these rushing stats, along with 47 pass attempts, tell us that's exactly what the Colts did. The late Gore run really did seal the deal though, so they got the run when they needed it.
• The Colts Defense looked slightly below average, on the whole, as they allowed the Jaguars to move the ball, especially on the ground, but got them off the field just in time to either force a punt or for them to miss a field goal late.
  
• The Defense also continues to struggle forcing turnovers, coming up empty-handed for the second time this year. The deficit continues to grow.

Season Stats through Week 4 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• The Colts lead the NFL on 3rd/4th Down conversions, getting over 50% against an average Defense. Sure doesn't seem like it should be that high, as I think it's been pretty streaky. But to see the Colts leading an Offensive category is surprising.
• The Defense is still a far cry from the "league average" unit they need to be, but I'm still holding out hope that returning from injury players will help these numbers. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but the Pass Defense will improve with a healthy set of CBs, which the Colts haven't had yet.

Week-by-Week Comparison:

You can clearly tell the difference between the Colts Offense with Andrew Luck and without him, so it's pretty clear there aren't many teams the Colts would be able to depend on Matt Hasselbeck giving them a chance to win. Thankfully the stars aligned and one of those teams happened to be the Colts opponent on Sunday. You can also see the Buffalo game getting better and better each week, meaning the Offense really didn't play all that bad; it just went against a very good Defense.