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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 5: Back On Top

The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Two division wins have helped the Colts get back to P1, but by how much?

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Usually when I'm looking at the week-to-week movements of the Playoff Odds, we see some movement on percentages, especially early in the season, because we just don't have enough data to make definitive statement about every team. However, the general ranking of teams, for the most part, is consistent with many of the other sites that project the same percentages we do here with the Winning Stats.

But this week saw some really interesting stuff in the AFC South. Namely, the Colts are now at better than 50% to win the division, the Texans took a huge nosedive, and the Titans, without playing a game, got 11% better towards winning the division.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 7.7 0.5% 1.8% 6.7% 41.6% 0.3% 1.0% 50.6% 2.3% 1.4% 52.0%
Texans 6.5 0.1% 0.6% 2.4% 19.6% 0.3% 1.0% 22.7% 0.7% 1.3% 24.0%
Titans 6.5 0.1% 0.4% 1.8% 15.5% 0.4% 1.2% 17.8% 0.4% 1.6% 19.3%
Jaguars 5.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 8.1% 0.2% 0.8% 8.9% 0.1% 0.9% 9.8%

As you can see, even though the Colts how have a relative stranglehold on the division, their projected win total actually went down slightly, thanks to their uninspiring performance against the Jaguars, and now sits below .500, a spot nobody would have predicted before the season. With their third division game in a row looming, a lot hinges on Thursday night's game. A Colts win takes them to 65% to win the division (and burying the Texans at 12%), while a loss puts them in a virtual tie with the Texans (35.2% to 35.0%). It's a gigantic game Thursday night.

By far the most wide-open division is the NFC East, with the Cowboys (35%), Giants (30%) and Redskins (26%) all in a virtual dead-heat after the first quarter of the season. The Packers (97%), Bengals (95%), and Falcons (91.5%) are the only three teams north of 90% of making the Playoffs, with the Broncos and Patriots close behind. It's also predicting the Packers have a 1% of going 16-0, and the chances of one of the six teams still undefeated doing it at 2%. On the opposite spectrum, only 8 of the 50,000 simulated seasons saw the Lions going 0-16 again, and the 49ers have the best chance of winning between 1 and 4 games of anyone in the league, so this helps illustrate why schedule does matter, and not just your record, especially early on in the season.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bengals 90.1% 5.4% 84.3% 49.4% 27.2% 14.1%
Patriots 54.4% 33.2% 70.3% 39.5% 21.5% 11.0%
Broncos 78.9% 9.8% 71.2% 38.1% 19.0% 9.1%
Jets 34.3% 44.0% 57.2% 29.9% 15.4% 7.5%
Bills 10.8% 36.3% 28.8% 12.7% 5.7% 2.6%
Chargers 12.8% 19.6% 16.7% 6.4% 2.6% 1.1%
Colts 50.6% 1.4% 21.8% 7.1% 2.5% 0.9%
Steelers 6.8% 15.0% 11.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Raiders 6.9% 14.1% 10.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Texans 22.7% 1.3% 9.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Ravens 2.2% 7.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Titans 17.8% 1.6% 6.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Chiefs 1.4% 4.7% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 8.9% 0.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Dolphins 0.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Browns 0.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

The AFC East is still dominating, despite the loss by the Bills to the Giants a week ago, but the Bengals have jumped from 4th to 1st in the past week, thanks to their domination of the Chiefs, and the fact that the Patriots didn't play in Week 4. The Colts are just outside a 1% of winning the Super Bowl, and about 2.5% of winning the AFC. As bad as they've been, that seems about right. Overall the Super Bowl favorite is the Packers, who have a 22.5% chance of winning it all.