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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 11: Still Looking Up (at Houston)

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Thanks to the Texans upset win in Cincinnati, the Colts are on the edge of missing the Playoffs. Can they build on their win over the Broncos to take control back from Houston?

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Bye week was not very kind for the Colts, at least in terms of their Playoff chances. They defeat the previously unbeaten Broncos before getting their week off, keeping their half-game lead over the Texans in the AFC South, with Houston having to go to undefeated Cincinnati, as 10.5 point underdogs, while the Colts were resting. Naturally, the Texans found a way to win Monday night, tying the Colts at 4-5, which catapulted them past the Colts into the lead in their Playoff Odds.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.2 0.1% 1.0% 9.7% 44.7% 1.0% 2.4% 55.4% 1.0% 3.4% 58.8%
Colts 7.5 0.0% 0.2% 5.3% 33.8% 0.8% 2.2% 39.4% 0.3% 3.0% 42.4%
Jaguars 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.6% 4.7%
Titans 4.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2%

You can see the Colts currently sit at 42% to make the Playoffs, while the Texans sit 17% higher than that at 59%, a decent difference but would be reversed if the Colts go a game up. You'll see the Colts still aren't expected, on average, to get back to .500, but I still firmly believe 8 wins will win the AFC South. Just hope the Colts can get there with Matt Hasselbeck playing QB for the next 1 to 5 weeks (I'm guessing it's closer to 5 than 1). As I've said in previous weeks, if the Colts can win their three divisional games that remain, they're 90% to win the division, so even if they can't win any of their next three games, hope will not all be lost.

The Patriots (99.9%), Panthers (99.8%), Bengals (99.6%), and the Cardinals (97.9%) are basically locked into the Playoffs and are heavy favorites to be the four teams to have a first round bye. On the heels of their three game losing streak, the Packers now have just a 33% chance of winning the NFC North, while the Vikings have an 83% chance of making the Playoffs, something quite unexpected before the season, and especially after their complete no-show in San Francisco in Week 1. The other big shocker? The Redskins are the favorite in the NFC East. Seriously.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Patriots 98.1% 1.8% 97.4% 56.8% 31.9% 16.4%
Bengals 95.8% 3.8% 91.4% 50.2% 25.0% 11.7%
Chiefs 26.0% 34.1% 39.2% 22.2% 13.3% 7.4%
Texans 55.4% 3.4% 31.1% 14.2% 6.7% 3.1%
Broncos 67.4% 14.2% 44.5% 17.8% 6.9% 2.7%
Jets 1.2% 44.2% 23.1% 9.6% 4.2% 1.7%
Steelers 4.2% 42.5% 23.9% 10.1% 4.3% 1.7%
Bills 0.8% 37.7% 18.7% 7.7% 3.4% 1.4%
Colts 39.4% 3.0% 19.2% 7.2% 2.7% 1.0%
Raiders 6.1% 9.1% 7.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Dolphins 0.0% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 4.1% 0.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Chargers 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Titans 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ravens 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

We have a new Super Bowl favorite, and it's the Arizona Cardinals at 19%, followed by the Patriots and Panthers at 16.5% and the Bengals at 12%. I'm shocked to see the Chiefs as the fifth best odds to win it all, as I can't get how bad that Offense can be at times, but they've played really well the last two weeks. The Colts sit at just 1%, so still a chance but not very likely.