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2015 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 11

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Each week we'll predict each game using the Winning Stats, as well as make picks as if we're competing in the Las Vegas SuperContest.

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In Week 9, after a 3-10 week, I talked about how years of data will always out-trump one bad week, and they happen from time to time, just like the opposite will also happen. I wasn't expecting it to come so soon, however. The Predictor went a spectacular 11-3 last week, bringing our season record back above .500 at 71-70-5. I have to keep firing, or else you'll miss a week like last week. Picking winners wasn't so hot again, however, going just 5-9, and it's really strange to see such a discrepancy in ATS and Straight Up picks, but obviously it can happen. Season record now 85-61 (58%).

With only losing three times last week, our SuperContest also did quite well, going 4-1, only missing on the Raiders, something I was leery about to begin with. Season record now stands at 29-21.

  • Bears -1 vs. Broncos
    I'm going to ride the Bears train another week, going against the Broncos and Brock Osweiler's first career start. Add in a little extra incentive for John Fox/Adam Gase, and think the Bears win again.
  • Buccaneers +5.5 at Eagles
    Another team getting very little respect from Vegas, yet they keep finding ways to not only cover games, but win them outright. I also like going against the Eagles, as we get to see the return of Mark Sanchez. I'm not a big believer in him.
  • Raiders -2 at Lions
    I know this line has gone the other way since Wednesday, but I think there's going to be a letdown after the win over the Packers for the Lions, and the Raiders are going to torch this secondary, like we all thought the Packers would.
  • Colts +5.5 at Falcons
    It's been a while since I've gone with the Colts, but this is more about the Falcons, who seemingly play games to the horn every week, and I'll take anyone getting nearly a touchdown against them. See my full preview here.
  • Chiefs -3 at Chargers
    This doesn't feel right, but the numbers are overwhelming, so I'm staying faithful to them. The Chiefs have played their two best games of the season in their last two games, and the Chargers skill guys, minus Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead, don't scare anyone.

Here are the rest of the Week 11 picks:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Jaguars 24 Titans 23 50.6%
Ravens 21 Rams 20 51.7%
Panthers 24 Redskins 21 59.7%
Bears 22 Broncos 19 60.1%
Lions 24 Raiders 29 61.5%
Vikings 25 Packers 24 51.5%
Falcons 26 Colts 25 51.8%
Dolphins 27 Cowboys 26 50.5%
Eagles 21 Buccaneers 23 56.8%
Texans 20 Jets 18 55.4%
Cardinals 26 Bengals 22 59.8%
Seahawks 27 49ers 15 78.4%
Chargers 23 Chiefs 31 70.7%
Patriots 29 Bills 25 59.5%