clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 9: Free-Falling

New, comments

The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. The Colts fall out of first place behind the Texans. Will the coaching staff changes help get them over the hump?

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

This seems to be the point in the season where desperation sinks in, and some of these numbers give an indication why we're seeing a shake-up in the Colts coaching staff. Add in the first week in a while where the Colts are not the favorite to win the AFC South, according to the Winning Stats, and it's time to try and save the season (metaphorically of course; the Super Bowl is long gone now).

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 7.0 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 46.8% 0.1% 0.6% 47.9% 0.1% 0.7% 48.6%
Colts 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 38.5% 0.0% 0.4% 38.8% 0.0% 0.5% 39.2%
Jaguars 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 11.4% 0.1% 0.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.6% 12.0%
Titans 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%

With their win over the Titans last week, and the Colts loss in Carolina, the Texans have pulled into a tie with the Colts for first place at 3-5, but they hold a 48% to 39% edge over the Colts in winning the division, something that hasn't been the case since Week 4. There's of course a very small percentage of times one of those teams will earn a Wild Card, but combined it's barely over 1%, so really the only avenue to the Playoffs is through winning the division. The Jaguars are just hanging there at 12%, and the Titans, who had a head coaching change of their own this week, sit at just 2%. It's hairier than you want it to be.

Obviously this is the worst division in the NFL, but how bad of a record could the eventual winner be? The worst record any team has won a division with is 7-9, and according to the Winning stats there's an 8.5% chance the winner will be 6-10, and around a half percent chance the winner is 5-11! The most common record is 8-8 (36.5%) then 7-9 (31%), but there's just as much of a chance of the winner being 11-5 as there is being 5-11, so anything's possible.

The rest of the league has five locks over 94% (NE, CIN, DEN, CAR, and GB), and the Cardinals at 89%, so half of the teams are pretty much getting ready for the Playoffs half way through the season. The NFC East remains a very tight race as the Eagles (32.5%), Giants (32%), and Redskins (28%) are all still very alive, with the Cowboys falling fast without Tony Romo. As far as Wild Cards go, the Jets and Raiders have the inside track at the moment, while the Falcons have a comfortable lead for the #5 seed, but the Saints, Rams, Seahawks, Vikings, and Buccaneers are pretty packed together.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Patriots 94.4% 5.4% 91.1% 54.3% 30.1% 17.9%
Broncos 93.3% 5.8% 85.6% 50.6% 28.1% 16.5%
Bengals 98.2% 1.4% 81.9% 42.6% 20.7% 11.6%
Raiders 5.9% 61.7% 38.5% 16.9% 7.8% 3.9%
Jets 5.5% 70.8% 41.7% 16.5% 6.9% 3.3%
Texans 47.9% 0.7% 20.9% 7.0% 2.4% 0.9%
Chiefs 0.7% 19.5% 9.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.7%
Steelers 1.6% 17.5% 8.4% 2.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Colts 38.8% 0.5% 13.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Jaguars 11.4% 0.6% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Bills 0.1% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.0% 6.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Browns 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Chargers 0.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Ravens 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Titans 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

The Patriots have now become the Super Bowl favorites at 18%, with the Broncos, who found an Offense Sunday night against the Packers, now sitting at 16.5% and second favorite. On the NFC side, the Cardinals are a fairly significant favorite at 15% winning the Super Bowl, with the Packers and unbeaten Panthers both at 9%. The only two teams, at this point, with no Super Bowl wins in our 50,000 simulations are the 49ers and Lions, with the Titans (4) and Bears (8) the only ones in single digits.