2015 NFL Week 14: Inside the Colts Numbers - Completely Unraveled

After nearly four years under Head Coach Chuck Pagano, and through more blowout losses than we have fingers, we finally saw a Colts team that stopped fighting. No longer can Pagano use any of his go-to cliches about how hard this team works and never quits, because they did in their 51-16 loss to the Jaguars, a game they led 13-3 with just over a minute to go in the first half and the ball after a Clayton Geathers fumble return to the Jacksonville 34 yard line. Then the proverbial wheels fell off the wagon. The next seven times the Jaguars touched the ball they scored a touchdown, which is just unacceptable.

After the game it was natural to harken back to another blowout loss in Jacksonville suffered by the Colts, you know, that one in 2006. Pagano even apparently brought it up (maybe he was asked a question about it, but either way he mentioned it). Josh was trying so hard in that article to try and believe a tiny bit of it, but I'm going to be a bit more blunt: the two games have almost 0 in common with each other. Only the uniforms and stadium are similar. In 2006, the Colts had the #1 Offense, the #32 Defense (so a day like that really wasn't all that surprising, and the Jaguars, by my numbers, ended up the second best overall team in the NFL that year, despite finishing 8-8. They lost seven games that year by a TD or less, and lost their final three games after that blowout win, probably because they celebrated a bit too much after beating the Colts. In the game specifically, the Colts Offense didn't play bad at all, playing at 65% of a "perfect game" with our Winning Stats, while the Defense was at 40%, again not horrible. This year? A total disaster at 16% and 38% respectively. The scores look similar, but what actually happened in the game Sunday bore no resemblance to what we saw in 2006. But I feel part of Pagano's job is to play cheerleader for the fans, so he had to say what he did.

The 51 points scored by the Jaguars is the "first" time they've gone north of 50 points in franchise history, because apparently records never count the postseason (unless it's comparing Peyton Manning to pretty much anyone). Jacksonville beat Miami 62-7 back in 1999 in the Divisional Round. The 51 points allowed is also the fourth time in five years, and third under this coaching staff, that a team has scored 50 or more on the Colts, something that had been done only one other time in Indianapolis Colts history, all the way back in their first season of 1984. The only other time the franchise gave up 45+ in consecutive weeks was in 1953, but they've given up 40+ in consecutive games twice before under this coaching staff, so it's nothing new, right? It was the 12th game the Colts have given up 40 or more points since the start of 2012, which is four more than the next closest teams.

Let's take a look at the stats, where everything, once again, went completely to shit.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Some thoughts:

• The Colts were facing the worst team on 3rd/4th down in the NFL and barely scraped over 25%, so their adjusted percentage was right at 20%. An area where the Colts easily had an advantage totally failed.
• God love Adam Vinatieri, but am I the only one that just groans each time he comes out now, as it means that, once again, the Colts have failed to score a touchdown close to their opponents end zone? Over the last 3 games, they've had 13 trips into the red zone (potential for 91 points) and only scored 39 points (three TDs, six FGs). This is how the Colts were winning games: scoring TDs. Once it stopped they've looked really bad.
• People see 51 points allowed and immediately think the Defense is the biggest problem. This is painfully clear that opposite is true. The Offense is just horrible, and looked horrible, against a bad Defense.
• Speaking of the Defense, while it wasn't a game to be proud of at all, they did score a touchdown by Robert Mathis recovering the ball in the end zone, and really played well in the first half. The second half wasn't good, but it was one awful play by Dwight Lowery and a couple long drives. if you told me there'd be just three sustained Jaguars drives and a Colts Defensive TD I would have been fine with that, and that's exactly what happened.
• I know it's hard because it's been ingrained in you from television, but don't let the score fool you. The Defense was Sunday what it's been all season. It just so happened 21 points came via the Colts Offense and Special Teams, making them look bad. They were merely below average.

Season Stats through Week 14 (Adjusted):

Some thoughts:

• The freefall continues for both sides of the ball, where the only thing we can point to that the Colts do well is getting their opponents to give them free yards via penalties. Everything else is not pretty.
• Back to the NFL's basement in Turnovers, where it could be for two straight years. Who's accountable?

Week-to-Week Comparison:

That's two straight weeks with nearly identical stats. Yay consistency! This Colts team is not good, in desperate need of some change, and I think we'll get it in a few weeks time. Even if both Andrew Luck and 2006 Bob Sanders come back this year, this team isn't going anywhere in January/February, no matter what a blowout loss to the Jaguars has meant in the past.