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2015 NFL Week 14: Inside the Colts Numbers - Completely Unraveled

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The Colts played almost identically two weeks in a row; only problem is the games were near the bottom of the league, this week losing 51-16 to the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

After nearly four years under Head Coach Chuck Pagano, and through more blowout losses than we have fingers, we finally saw a Colts team that stopped fighting. No longer can Pagano use any of his go-to cliches about how hard this team works and never quits, because they did in their 51-16 loss to the Jaguars, a game they led 13-3 with just over a minute to go in the first half and the ball after a Clayton Geathers fumble return to the Jacksonville 34 yard line. Then the proverbial wheels fell off the wagon. The next seven times the Jaguars touched the ball they scored a touchdown, which is just unacceptable.

After the game it was natural to harken back to another blowout loss in Jacksonville suffered by the Colts, you know, that one in 2006. Pagano even apparently brought it up (maybe he was asked a question about it, but either way he mentioned it). Josh was trying so hard in that article to try and believe a tiny bit of it, but I'm going to be a bit more blunt: the two games have almost 0 in common with each other. Only the uniforms and stadium are similar. In 2006, the Colts had the #1 Offense, the #32 Defense (so a day like that really wasn't all that surprising, and the Jaguars, by my numbers, ended up the second best overall team in the NFL that year, despite finishing 8-8. They lost seven games that year by a TD or less, and lost their final three games after that blowout win, probably because they celebrated a bit too much after beating the Colts. In the game specifically, the Colts Offense didn't play bad at all, playing at 65% of a "perfect game" with our Winning Stats, while the Defense was at 40%, again not horrible. This year? A total disaster at 16% and 38% respectively. The scores look similar, but what actually happened in the game Sunday bore no resemblance to what we saw in 2006. But I feel part of Pagano's job is to play cheerleader for the fans, so he had to say what he did.

The 51 points scored by the Jaguars is the "first" time they've gone north of 50 points in franchise history, because apparently records never count the postseason (unless it's comparing Peyton Manning to pretty much anyone). Jacksonville beat Miami 62-7 back in 1999 in the Divisional Round. The 51 points allowed is also the fourth time in five years, and third under this coaching staff, that a team has scored 50 or more on the Colts, something that had been done only one other time in Indianapolis Colts history, all the way back in their first season of 1984. The only other time the franchise gave up 45+ in consecutive weeks was in 1953, but they've given up 40+ in consecutive games twice before under this coaching staff, so it's nothing new, right? It was the 12th game the Colts have given up 40 or more points since the start of 2012, which is four more than the next closest teams.

Let's take a look at the stats, where everything, once again, went completely to shit.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 53.1% 29 78.4% 24 N Y 8-1
ANPY/A 3.957 28 8.667 27 N Y 8-2
Turnovers 2 23 2 4 N N 6-2
Yds/Drive 21.47 28 29.23 12 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 2:03.2 28 2:14.8 8 N N 9-3
Yds/Play 4.667 26 6.129 23 N Y 6-3
Orange Zone Eff 32.1% 25 73.8% 27 N Y 9-2
First Downs/Drive 1.13 29 1.85 19 N Y 8-1
3rd/4th Down 27.8% 24 30.0% 10 N N 8-0
Avg Start Pos 24.9 19 28.9 24 N N 4-2
3 and Outs 5 26 5 5 N N 6-2
RZ Eff 42.9% 24 100.0% 25 N Y 8-1
Plays/Drive 4.600 29 4.769 5 N N 5-3
Penalty Yds / Play 1.232 26 0.645 22 N Y 4-6
RB Success 50.0% 8 42.9% 14 Y N 5-3
Yds/Carry 4.13 14 5.31 24 N Y 4-3
Ranking - Week (32) 31 18 26
Ranking - Season (416) 407 240 380

Adjusted Stats for Week 14:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 50.8% 31 79.2% 25 N Y 8-1
ANPY/A 3.004 30 9.002 27 N Y 8-2
Turnovers 2.3 27 1.8 6 N N 6-2
Yds/Drive 19.82 29 31.30 15 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 1:54.1 31 2:34.9 13 N N 9-3
Yds/Play 4.660 25 6.219 23 N Y 6-3
Orange Zone Eff 25.2% 28 67.8% 25 N Y 9-2
First Downs/Drive 0.94 31 1.96 20 N Y 8-1
3rd/4th Down 20.1% 29 32.7% 11 N N 8-0
Avg Start Pos 23.0 24 29.4 25 N N 4-2
3 and Outs 5.4 29 4.1 8 N N 6-2
RZ Eff 36.3% 27 102.2% 29 N Y 8-1
Plays/Drive 4.308 30 5.022 6 N N 5-3
Penalty Yds / Play 1.196 25 0.762 21 N Y 4-6
RB Success 53.1% 6 45.7% 20 Y N 5-3
Yds/Carry 4.58 13 5.13 24 N Y 4-3
Ranking - Week (32) 32 20 30
Ranking - Season (416) 409 297 404

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts were facing the worst team on 3rd/4th down in the NFL and barely scraped over 25%, so their adjusted percentage was right at 20%. An area where the Colts easily had an advantage totally failed.
  • God love Adam Vinatieri, but am I the only one that just groans each time he comes out now, as it means that, once again, the Colts have failed to score a touchdown close to their opponents end zone? Over the last 3 games, they've had 13 trips into the red zone (potential for 91 points) and only scored 39 points (three TDs, six FGs). This is how the Colts were winning games: scoring TDs. Once it stopped they've looked really bad.
  • People see 51 points allowed and immediately think the Defense is the biggest problem. This is painfully clear that opposite is true. The Offense is just horrible, and looked horrible, against a bad Defense.
  • Speaking of the Defense, while it wasn't a game to be proud of at all, they did score a touchdown by Robert Mathis recovering the ball in the end zone, and really played well in the first half. The second half wasn't good, but it was one awful play by Dwight Lowery and a couple long drives. if you told me there'd be just three sustained Jaguars drives and a Colts Defensive TD I would have been fine with that, and that's exactly what happened.
  • I know it's hard because it's been ingrained in you from television, but don't let the score fool you. The Defense was Sunday what it's been all season. It just so happened 21 points came via the Colts Offense and Special Teams, making them look bad. They were merely below average.

Season Stats through Week 14 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 67.0% 24 Cardinals 71.2% 21 Broncos 78-12 0.867
ANPY/A 4.555 27 Cardinals 6.523 24 Broncos 83-13 0.865
Turnovers 2.26 32 Packers 1.79 13 Panthers 81-30 0.730
Yds/Drive 27.34 26 Cardinals 32.17 25 Broncos 66-16 0.805
ToP/Drive 2:34.0 24 Cowboys 2:38.0 14 Panthers 80-33 0.708
Yds/Play 4.900 29 Steelers 5.709 26 Broncos 75-21 0.781
Orange Zone Eff 55.3% 15 Seahawks 57.2% 24 Jets 77-19 0.802
First Downs/Drive 1.62 22 Cardinals 1.69 15 Broncos 72-26 0.735
3rd/4th Down 39.9% 14 Cardinals 42.2% 23 Broncos 65-26 0.714
Avg Start Pos 29.2 18 Chiefs 29.0 12 Bengals 75-22 0.773
3 and Outs 4.45 28 Vikings 3.46 19 Panthers 58-29 0.667
RZ Eff 63.4% 17 Raiders 72.1% 26 Jets 74-26 0.740
Plays/Drive 5.644 19 Chargers 5.592 13 Panthers 65-38 0.631
Penalty Yds / Play 0.745 10 Jets 1.062 2 Cardinals 53-49 0.520
RB Success 42.7% 20 Seahawks 43.6% 15 Broncos 46-46 0.500
Yds/Carry 4.03 18 Rams 4.37 25 Broncos 45-42 0.517
Overall 25 Cardinals 22 Broncos

Some thoughts:

  • The freefall continues for both sides of the ball, where the only thing we can point to that the Colts do well is getting their opponents to give them free yards via penalties. Everything else is not pretty.
  • Back to the NFL's basement in Turnovers, where it could be for two straight years. Who's accountable?

Week-to-Week Comparison:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Bills 151 363 312 181 369 332
2 Jets 360 251 362 284 263 320
3 Titans 224 244 251 241 313 324
4 Jaguars 298 188 272 372 251 368
5 Texans 52 314 147 24 346 162
6 Patriots 97 293 175 44 216 68
7 Saints 382 172 341 412 135 356
8 Panthers 401 43 250 331 27 146
9 Broncos 45 184 52 9 244 41
10 BYE
11 Falcons 316 108 213 380 116 286
12 Buccaneers 61 187 61 133 223 164
13 Steelers 408 367 413 407 353 411
14 Jaguars 407 240 380 409 297 404

That's two straight weeks with nearly identical stats. Yay consistency! This Colts team is not good, in desperate need of some change, and I think we'll get it in a few weeks time. Even if both Andrew Luck and 2006 Bob Sanders come back this year, this team isn't going anywhere in January/February, no matter what a blowout loss to the Jaguars has meant in the past.