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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 15: All The Marbles

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. The Playoff chances for the Colts essentially come down to this Sunday against the Texans, with little chance of passing them if they lose.

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With three weeks left, and two teams tied atop the AFC South, it's strange that a game this week can basically decide the division, but that's essentially what we'll see when the Texans come to Indianapolis Sunday afternoon.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 7.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 0.0% 0.0% 54.5%
Colts 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.0%
Jaguars 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5%
Titans 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

There still isn't much difference between the Colts and Texans, with the percentages almost lining up exactly with the Predictor's odds for Sunday's game, with a little bit of Jacksonville sprinkled in if both teams completely fail. If the Colts win Sunday (and that's a big if regardless of the fact that the Texans have never won in Indianapolis), they'll be at 89.5% to win the division, and needing just one win in their final two games or a loss each by the Texans or Jaguars, who play each other in Week 17 to clinch. If the Colts lose they'll sit at just 8%, needing to win both games and hope the Texans lose both, as the tie-breakers, I don't believe, would favor the Colts. It's obviously very remote for the loser of their game this week to win the division.

Despite the injury to Andy Dalton the Bengals are still at 97% to win the AFC North, and hold a slight edge over the Broncos for the other first round bye, as the Patriots seemingly have one of those wrapped up (94%). The Panthers have clinched a first round bye and can wrap up home field advantage by winning one of their final three games. Speaking of winning the final three games, the Predictor gives them a 39% chance of doing just that, if you're so inclined to wager on such things. The Cardinals have clinched a Playoff spot and the Packers are almost there at 99.4%, while the Seahawks are also a near-lock for the postseason at 97%, but they'll be the five seed. It's also still predicting the Redskins (43.5%) will come out of the NFC East over the Eagles (37.5%) and Giants (24%).

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Patriots 100.0% 0.0% 97.6% 58.5% 33.3% 16.1%
Bengals 97.3% 2.7% 82.5% 47.1% 24.7% 11.6%
Broncos 84.7% 11.5% 71.0% 33.8% 15.2% 6.3%
Chiefs 15.3% 68.2% 44.5% 19.3% 8.9% 3.8%
Jets 0.0% 52.9% 29.1% 13.6% 6.7% 2.9%
Steelers 2.7% 58.1% 31.0% 12.7% 5.7% 2.4%
Texans 54.5% 0.0% 24.6% 9.1% 3.5% 1.3%
Colts 41.0% 0.0% 15.1% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Bills 0.0% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Raiders 0.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Jaguars 4.5% 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Ravens 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chargers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Titans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

With seemingly every other AFC Playoff team without an elite QB, the Patriots stand alone again atop the AFC, despite the fact they're missing a ton of players themselves, just not their two most valuable. The Bengals are helped here if we assume Dalton will be back for the Playoffs, something hinted at earlier this week, but their track record isn't the greatest in postseason play, so we'll see how that goes. For the first time this season the Panthers have moved into the favorite role at 19.5%, followed by the Cardinals at 17.5%. The league is quite top-heavy right now, and it's sad the Colts aren't a part of that.