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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 13: Neck and Neck

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. The Colts and Texans are in a virtual dead heat to win the AFC South / make the playoffs.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

This week in the Playoff Odds has something a little unique, in that the odds to win the AFC South are opposite those to make the Playoffs, but either way the Colts chances are looking much better thanks to their current three game winning streak, even with the Texans having won their last four games.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 9.1 0.0% 0.7% 6.1% 40.6% 3.6% 12.7% 47.5% 0.7% 16.3% 63.8%
Colts 9.1 0.0% 0.4% 5.0% 46.0% 2.1% 7.0% 51.5% 0.4% 9.1% 60.5%
Jaguars 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6%
Titans 3.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

As you can see, the Colts have the best chances of winning the division at 51.5%, while the Texans are at just 47.5%, but their overall odds to make the Playoffs are slightly below the Texans, by 3%, mostly because of tie-breakers against other AFC teams. The Colts would be fighting against the Jets, Bills, and Steelers (two losses and a possible third), while the Texans have beaten the Jets, lost to the Chiefs, and play Buffalo this weekend, so they fare a bit better in the tie-breakers.

Obviously the biggest game for both teams is the game in Indianapolis between themselves, but is that game the only one that "really" matters? If the Colts win their Week 15 match-up, they'd be at 89% to make the Playoffs, 88% to win the AFC South, and if the Texans win they'd have a 75% chance of winning the division (Colts at 23%), and the Colts would be at just 38% to make the Playoffs. I've seen and heard a lot of people say winning the Texans game is all the Colts have to worry about, which is almost right, but they'll still need to do a little more, and even if the Colts lose that game, it isn't the end of the season.

Around the league, obviously the Panthers, Patriots, Bengals, Cardinals, and Broncos are all north of 98% to make the Playoffs, with the Broncos the only one of those five that is "in danger" of not winning their division (at 89%). The Vikings have a pretty good stronghold on the NFC North, winning it 72% of the time, as the Packers have really struggled since they started 6-0 (lost four of five). In the NFC East, the only other division still in the balance, the Redskins lead the Giants 62% to 26%, with the other two teams having a token chance of winning.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bengals 98.9% 0.9% 85.3% 47.8% 26.3% 13.1%
Patriots 99.7% 0.3% 92.9% 45.9% 22.1% 9.7%
Chiefs 10.9% 72.6% 49.7% 28.5% 16.7% 9.4%
Broncos 88.7% 9.7% 73.5% 34.2% 16.0% 7.2%
Texans 47.5% 16.3% 33.2% 16.5% 8.1% 3.9%
Colts 51.5% 9.1% 26.9% 11.5% 4.9% 2.1%
Jets 0.3% 46.5% 20.4% 8.7% 3.5% 1.4%
Bills 0.0% 15.1% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Steelers 1.1% 18.3% 7.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Raiders 0.4% 9.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Ravens 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jaguars 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Chargers 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Titans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

You'd expect the top two teams in our table here, with the Bengals taking over the top spot in the AFC, but the Chiefs have been rocketing up our rankings during their five game winning streak. I'm not sure I'm buying them against some of the really good teams in the NFL (I know they slaughtered the Broncos), but as of now the Predictor loves them. Overall in the NFL the Panthers lead the way at 19.4%, followed by the Cardinals at 17%. Speaking of the Panthers, the Predictor is giving them a 21% chance of finishing the season 16-0, which is certainly attainable.