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Before the season, it was clear that if the Colts missed the playoffs (which seemed like a joke to even talk about at that point), Chuck Pagano was surely gone. Now, the Colts are playing today in a game that very well could determine whether they make the postseason or not, but either way, the signs strongly point to Pagano being gone after the year.
It's not certain nor official yet, but it's likely at this point, and it would probably take a massive turnaround in the playoffs in order for him to stick around. If he is indeed fired, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reports that Pagano will be a "coveted candidate" for other head coaching jobs around the league:
One truth on #Colts coach Chuck Pagano: If he's fired, he'll be a coveted candidate. Those advising @NFL teams with openings are sure of it
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 20, 2015
Pagano is the odd and rare candidate that would hit the market with plenty of success during his tenure in Indianapolis, winning 11 games in each of his first three seasons, winning three playoff games, making the AFC Championship game, winning two division titles, and compiling a .639 winning percentage (currently) through nearly four seasons. For his first head coaching job, that's a very intriguing resume for other teams. Of course, there are complaints to be had with Pagano as a coach, and added to the fact that there is reportedly tension between him and Ryan Grigson make it likely that he will be gone. But, for a team that doesn't have a guy like Andrew Luck who the owner wants to win multiple Super Bowls with, bringing in Pagano could be something that they want to do.
One potential landing spot for Pagano that is mentioned is the Miami Dolphins, who fired their coach mid-season this year and will be looking for a change. That won't be the only head coaching job that is open this offseason, however, and so it's entirely possible that, even if Chuck Pagano isn't coaching the Colts next season, he'll be a head coach somewhere else.