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The Colts had a chance to punch their ticket to the Playoffs by simply doing what they've done every year since 2002: beat the Texans at home. Sadly, even with the Texans going to their fourth QB of the season, Brandon Weeden, the Colts had no answer for them late, falling 16-10, dropping them to 6-8, a game behind the Texans in the AFC South, and essentially ending the season without something catastrophic happening.
The first half looked like they'd be ok, and got even better when T.J. Yates left with an injury, meaning Brandon Weeden was coming in with just a minute to go in the first half and the Colts up 10-0 and the Texans staring at a first and 20. In classing 2015 Colts fashion, however, five completions in a row and the Texans had a field goal just before the half. It just went downhill from there, as the Colts could muster only 65 total yards in the second half, punting four times and turning it over on their last two possessions. And to add to it, they gave up a 90 yard drive to a Texans Offense that put them ahead 13-10 in the 4th quarter, a touchdown to Jaelen Strong, his third TD against the Colts defense this season. You know how many other catches he has this season? Three. I know this season can't be put on the Defense, but come on. A guy who barely sees the field against anyone else has three TDs against the Colts.
In my five stages of grief, I think I hit several of them before this Sunday. Denial was gone after the Steelers game, as it was clear this team only had a chance if Andrew Luck was under center. Anger was gone when they stopped caring against the Jaguars. Bargaining ended once the clock hit 0:00 against the Texans, as their last real hope of making the Playoffs finally vanished. I should be in the Depression stage, but that's quickly subsided after reading some mock drafts, so I've moved to Acceptance. The Colts are a bad team when Andrew Luck doesn't play because of a combination of talent and coaching deficiencies.
Here come the stats, but I think you already know what they'll say.
Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 60.0% | 29 | 67.7% | 9 | N | N | 3-0 |
| ANPY/A | 3.286 | 29 | 4.032 | 6 | N | N | 7-1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 18 | 2 | 6 | N | N | 8-1 |
| Yds/Drive | 17.27 | 32 | 27.73 | 12 | N | N | 5-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:22.2 | 18 | 3:05.1 | 23 | N | Y | 8-1 |
| Yds/Play | 3.519 | 32 | 4.485 | 7 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 71.4% | 10 | 45.7% | 4 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.27 | 27 | 1.82 | 17 | N | Y | 5-1 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 30.8% | 22 | 41.2% | 16 | N | Y | 5-0 |
| Avg Start Pos | 33.5 | 9 | 27.0 | 13 | Y | N | 8-3 |
| 3 and Outs | 5 | 20 | 1 | 31 | N | Y | 6-1 |
| RZ Eff | 71.4% | 14 | 61.9% | 8 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Plays/Drive | 4.909 | 27 | 6.182 | 23 | N | Y | 6-2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 1.741 | 30 | 0.706 | 20 | N | Y | 5-2 |
| RB Success | 33.3% | 23 | 32.4% | 8 | N | N | 4-9 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.63 | 28 | 4.19 | 19 | N | Y | 3-5 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 29 | 12 | 22 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (448) | 400 | 146 | 323 | ||||
Adjusted Stats for Week 15:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Off/Def Above | Off/Def Below | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 64.0% | 28 | 71.9% | 16 | N | N | 3-0 |
| ANPY/A | 3.121 | 31 | 4.771 | 9 | N | N | 7-1 |
| Turnovers | 2.3 | 26 | 2.2 | 7 | N | N | 8-1 |
| Yds/Drive | 21.67 | 29 | 31.09 | 17 | N | N | 5-1 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:30.5 | 15 | 3:17.6 | 29 | N | Y | 8-1 |
| Yds/Play | 3.798 | 31 | 5.164 | 13 | N | N | 4-3 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 73.2% | 11 | 46.4% | 7 | Y | N | 4-3 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.53 | 23 | 1.93 | 21 | N | Y | 5-1 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 40.3% | 16 | 45.1% | 21 | N | Y | 5-0 |
| Avg Start Pos | 31.9 | 12 | 29.1 | 16 | Y | N | 8-3 |
| 3 and Outs | 4.6 | 20 | 0.1 | 32 | N | Y | 6-1 |
| RZ Eff | 70.8% | 19 | 70.1% | 13 | Y | N | 5-3 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.397 | 18 | 6.159 | 26 | N | Y | 6-2 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 1.639 | 30 | 0.809 | 14 | N | Y | 5-2 |
| RB Success | 36.9% | 20 | 39.3% | 14 | N | N | 4-9 |
| Yds/Carry | 2.65 | 29 | 4.73 | 20 | N | Y | 3-5 |
| Ranking - Week (32) | 26 | 17 | 30 | ||||
| Ranking - Season (448) | 389 | 229 | 370 | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Colts couldn't move the ball on a large scale (29th in Yards per Drive), and on a smaller scale (31st in Yards per Play, 31st in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, and 29th in Yards per Carry). The Texans Defense is good, but the Colts were just really bad.
- Some good news (!) The Colts did score points the two times they got inside the Texans 35, including a TD. The problem lies in it was only two times though.
- Lots of Pass Interference penalties. None on their own were real killers, but certainly did not help things.
- The Colts even had the Starting Position advantage on both sides and still couldn't do anything with it. The game couldn't have set up any better, and they totally blew it.
- The Defense Passing numbers look good, but that doesn't take into account the PI penalties (which maybe they should), so it's better than it really was. But for non-penalties they did a good job.
- Only one Three and Out against a team that averaged nearly five of them a game is not good at all. They also let them have really long drives, ranking 29th in Time of Possession per Drive.
- It was not a good weekend in the NFL if your team ran the ball well, as those teams that ran the ball and stopped the run above average were 7-14. Yikes.
Season Stats through Week 15 (Adjusted):
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 66.5% | 26 | Cardinals | 71.0% | 22 | Broncos | 81-12 | 0.871 |
| ANPY/A | 4.313 | 31 | Cardinals | 6.350 | 24 | Broncos | 90-14 | 0.865 |
| Turnovers | 2.30 | 32 | Packers | 1.84 | 11 | Panthers | 89-31 | 0.742 |
| Yds/Drive | 26.88 | 26 | Cardinals | 31.86 | 23 | Broncos | 71-17 | 0.807 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:35.0 | 22 | Vikings | 2:41.0 | 18 | Panthers | 88-34 | 0.721 |
| Yds/Play | 4.780 | 30 | Steelers | 5.646 | 26 | Broncos | 79-24 | 0.767 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 54.7% | 16 | Seahawks | 56.2% | 23 | Jets | 81-22 | 0.786 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.61 | 22 | Cardinals | 1.69 | 14 | Panthers | 77-27 | 0.740 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 39.7% | 16 | Seahawks | 42.8% | 27 | Rams | 70-26 | 0.729 |
| Avg Start Pos | 29.0 | 19 | Bengals | 29.5 | 13 | Seahawks | 83-25 | 0.769 |
| 3 and Outs | 4.43 | 27 | Vikings | 3.21 | 24 | Panthers | 64-30 | 0.681 |
| RZ Eff | 62.4% | 20 | Raiders | 72.1% | 26 | Jets | 79-29 | 0.731 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.655 | 17 | Chargers | 5.616 | 14 | Panthers | 71-40 | 0.640 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.794 | 13 | Jets | 1.044 | 2 | Cardinals | 58-51 | 0.532 |
| RB Success | 42.1% | 23 | Seahawks | 43.5% | 16 | Broncos | 50-55 | 0.476 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.91 | 19 | Bills | 4.41 | 24 | Broncos | 48-47 | 0.505 |
| Overall | 25 | Seahawks | 21 | Broncos | ||||
Some thoughts:
- The Colts Offense is the 2nd worst passing team in the NFL and worst team in Turnovers. You'd have won a lot of bets before the season if you said that.
- The Colts Defense has gotten better as the season goes on at forcing Turnovers, ranking 11th on the season.
Week-to-Week Comparisons:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Bills | 164 | 390 | 333 | 218 | 386 | 372 |
| 2 | Jets | 385 | 270 | 389 | 306 | 296 | 353 |
| 3 | Titans | 238 | 264 | 271 | 250 | 351 | 359 |
| 4 | Jaguars | 321 | 205 | 292 | 407 | 279 | 400 |
| 5 | Texans | 56 | 340 | 158 | 29 | 378 | 178 |
| 6 | Patriots | 103 | 316 | 189 | 43 | 248 | 75 |
| 7 | Saints | 412 | 189 | 367 | 446 | 147 | 388 |
| 8 | Panthers | 432 | 44 | 268 | 368 | 32 | 168 |
| 9 | Broncos | 49 | 200 | 56 | 7 | 256 | 38 |
| 10 | BYE | ||||||
| 11 | Falcons | 339 | 116 | 230 | 405 | 125 | 303 |
| 12 | Buccaneers | 67 | 203 | 67 | 160 | 225 | 169 |
| 13 | Steelers | 439 | 394 | 445 | 438 | 376 | 443 |
| 14 | Jaguars | 438 | 260 | 409 | 443 | 329 | 437 |
| 15 | Texans | 400 | 146 | 323 | 389 | 229 | 370 |
You can see the most consistent thing about the Colts this season is their inconsistency. They played incredibly well against the best Defense in the NFL, but really have done nothing since without Luck. I don't think any coach is surviving this season, but it is unfortunate we only got one look at the Rob Chudzinski Offense with a QB. It might have been enough to salvage this season. But it just wasn't meant to be.