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2015 NFL Week 15: Inside the Colts Numbers - Total Collapse

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With the season on the line, the Colts couldn't stop a Brandon Weeden-led drive, then ran just three plays in their final two possessions, turning it over both times, essentially ending their season after their first loss ever in Indianapolis to the Texans 16-10.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

The Colts had a chance to punch their ticket to the Playoffs by simply doing what they've done every year since 2002: beat the Texans at home. Sadly, even with the Texans going to their fourth QB of the season, Brandon Weeden, the Colts had no answer for them late, falling 16-10, dropping them to 6-8, a game behind the Texans in the AFC South, and essentially ending the season without something catastrophic happening.

The first half looked like they'd be ok, and got even better when T.J. Yates left with an injury, meaning Brandon Weeden was coming in with just a minute to go in the first half and the Colts up 10-0 and the Texans staring at a first and 20. In classing 2015 Colts fashion, however, five completions in a row and the Texans had a field goal just before the half. It just went downhill from there, as the Colts could muster only 65 total yards in the second half, punting four times and turning it over on their last two possessions. And to add to it, they gave up a 90 yard drive to a Texans Offense that put them ahead 13-10 in the 4th quarter, a touchdown to Jaelen Strong, his third TD against the Colts defense this season. You know how many other catches he has this season? Three. I know this season can't be put on the Defense, but come on. A guy who barely sees the field against anyone else has three TDs against the Colts.

In my five stages of grief, I think I hit several of them before this Sunday. Denial was gone after the Steelers game, as it was clear this team only had a chance if Andrew Luck was under center. Anger was gone when they stopped caring against the Jaguars. Bargaining ended once the clock hit 0:00 against the Texans, as their last real hope of making the Playoffs finally vanished. I should be in the Depression stage, but that's quickly subsided after reading some mock drafts, so I've moved to Acceptance. The Colts are a bad team when Andrew Luck doesn't play because of a combination of talent and coaching deficiencies.

Here come the stats, but I think you already know what they'll say.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 15:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 60.0% 29 67.7% 9 N N 3-0
ANPY/A 3.286 29 4.032 6 N N 7-1
Turnovers 2 18 2 6 N N 8-1
Yds/Drive 17.27 32 27.73 12 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 2:22.2 18 3:05.1 23 N Y 8-1
Yds/Play 3.519 32 4.485 7 N N 4-3
Orange Zone Eff 71.4% 10 45.7% 4 Y N 4-3
First Downs/Drive 1.27 27 1.82 17 N Y 5-1
3rd/4th Down 30.8% 22 41.2% 16 N Y 5-0
Avg Start Pos 33.5 9 27.0 13 Y N 8-3
3 and Outs 5 20 1 31 N Y 6-1
RZ Eff 71.4% 14 61.9% 8 Y N 5-3
Plays/Drive 4.909 27 6.182 23 N Y 6-2
Penalty Yds / Play 1.741 30 0.706 20 N Y 5-2
RB Success 33.3% 23 32.4% 8 N N 4-9
Yds/Carry 2.63 28 4.19 19 N Y 3-5
Ranking - Week (32) 29 12 22
Ranking - Season (448) 400 146 323

Adjusted Stats for Week 15:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 64.0% 28 71.9% 16 N N 3-0
ANPY/A 3.121 31 4.771 9 N N 7-1
Turnovers 2.3 26 2.2 7 N N 8-1
Yds/Drive 21.67 29 31.09 17 N N 5-1
ToP/Drive 2:30.5 15 3:17.6 29 N Y 8-1
Yds/Play 3.798 31 5.164 13 N N 4-3
Orange Zone Eff 73.2% 11 46.4% 7 Y N 4-3
First Downs/Drive 1.53 23 1.93 21 N Y 5-1
3rd/4th Down 40.3% 16 45.1% 21 N Y 5-0
Avg Start Pos 31.9 12 29.1 16 Y N 8-3
3 and Outs 4.6 20 0.1 32 N Y 6-1
RZ Eff 70.8% 19 70.1% 13 Y N 5-3
Plays/Drive 5.397 18 6.159 26 N Y 6-2
Penalty Yds / Play 1.639 30 0.809 14 N Y 5-2
RB Success 36.9% 20 39.3% 14 N N 4-9
Yds/Carry 2.65 29 4.73 20 N Y 3-5
Ranking - Week (32) 26 17 30
Ranking - Season (448) 389 229 370

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts couldn't move the ball on a large scale (29th in Yards per Drive), and on a smaller scale (31st in Yards per Play, 31st in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, and 29th in Yards per Carry). The Texans Defense is good, but the Colts were just really bad.
  • Some good news (!) The Colts did score points the two times they got inside the Texans 35, including a TD. The problem lies in it was only two times though.
  • Lots of Pass Interference penalties. None on their own were real killers, but certainly did not help things.
  • The Colts even had the Starting Position advantage on both sides and still couldn't do anything with it. The game couldn't have set up any better, and they totally blew it.
  • The Defense Passing numbers look good, but that doesn't take into account the PI penalties (which maybe they should), so it's better than it really was. But for non-penalties they did a good job.
  • Only one Three and Out against a team that averaged nearly five of them a game is not good at all. They also let them have really long drives, ranking 29th in Time of Possession per Drive.
  • It was not a good weekend in the NFL if your team ran the ball well, as those teams that ran the ball and stopped the run above average were 7-14. Yikes.

Season Stats through Week 15 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 66.5% 26 Cardinals 71.0% 22 Broncos 81-12 0.871
ANPY/A 4.313 31 Cardinals 6.350 24 Broncos 90-14 0.865
Turnovers 2.30 32 Packers 1.84 11 Panthers 89-31 0.742
Yds/Drive 26.88 26 Cardinals 31.86 23 Broncos 71-17 0.807
ToP/Drive 2:35.0 22 Vikings 2:41.0 18 Panthers 88-34 0.721
Yds/Play 4.780 30 Steelers 5.646 26 Broncos 79-24 0.767
Orange Zone Eff 54.7% 16 Seahawks 56.2% 23 Jets 81-22 0.786
First Downs/Drive 1.61 22 Cardinals 1.69 14 Panthers 77-27 0.740
3rd/4th Down 39.7% 16 Seahawks 42.8% 27 Rams 70-26 0.729
Avg Start Pos 29.0 19 Bengals 29.5 13 Seahawks 83-25 0.769
3 and Outs 4.43 27 Vikings 3.21 24 Panthers 64-30 0.681
RZ Eff 62.4% 20 Raiders 72.1% 26 Jets 79-29 0.731
Plays/Drive 5.655 17 Chargers 5.616 14 Panthers 71-40 0.640
Penalty Yds / Play 0.794 13 Jets 1.044 2 Cardinals 58-51 0.532
RB Success 42.1% 23 Seahawks 43.5% 16 Broncos 50-55 0.476
Yds/Carry 3.91 19 Bills 4.41 24 Broncos 48-47 0.505
Overall 25 Seahawks 21 Broncos

Some thoughts:

  • The Colts Offense is the 2nd worst passing team in the NFL and worst team in Turnovers. You'd have won a lot of bets before the season if you said that.
  • The Colts Defense has gotten better as the season goes on at forcing Turnovers, ranking 11th on the season.

Week-to-Week Comparisons:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Bills 164 390 333 218 386 372
2 Jets 385 270 389 306 296 353
3 Titans 238 264 271 250 351 359
4 Jaguars 321 205 292 407 279 400
5 Texans 56 340 158 29 378 178
6 Patriots 103 316 189 43 248 75
7 Saints 412 189 367 446 147 388
8 Panthers 432 44 268 368 32 168
9 Broncos 49 200 56 7 256 38
10 BYE
11 Falcons 339 116 230 405 125 303
12 Buccaneers 67 203 67 160 225 169
13 Steelers 439 394 445 438 376 443
14 Jaguars 438 260 409 443 329 437
15 Texans 400 146 323 389 229 370

You can see the most consistent thing about the Colts this season is their inconsistency. They played incredibly well against the best Defense in the NFL, but really have done nothing since without Luck. I don't think any coach is surviving this season, but it is unfortunate we only got one look at the Rob Chudzinski Offense with a QB. It might have been enough to salvage this season. But it just wasn't meant to be.