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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 16: One Chance Left

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. The Colts need a miracle to make the Playoffs now. Well, just the Texans to lose twice and for them to beat Tennessee, but that does seem like a stretch at this point.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

We all knew that the Colts chances of making the Playoffs hinged considerably on their game last week against the Texans, and with their 16-10 loss, their Playoff odds plummeted into single digits. It's not pretty, but for the select few of you that want to keep some shred of hope alive, I'll spell out just how likely it is.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89.4% 0.0% 0.0% 89.4% 0.0% 0.0% 89.4%
Colts 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7%
Jaguars 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
Titans 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

As we sit currently, the Colts have just a 7.7% of making the Playoffs, and there are really only two scenarios where the Colts will make the Playoffs:

  • If Texans go 0-2, the Colts only have to beat the Titans, as they'd win tiebreakers over both the Texans and Jaguars (if they're 7-9 as well). Beating the Dolphins is just window dressing and avoiding tiebreakers.
  • The Colts win both games and the Texans finish 1-1, where it would come down to a Strength of Victory tiebreaker. Want to know how likely the Colts win a Strength of Victory Tiebreaker over the Texans? 2%, so don't count on that happening.

What this all means is the Colts need the Texans to lose both games or else they aren't making the Playoffs, and they're playing against a backup QB this week in Tennessee. I don't want to kill any optimistic view you might have, but it really isn't good.

What about everyone else? The Patriots and Panthers have a bye, the Cardinals have won their division, and the Bengals and Packers have clinched Playoff spots. The Broncos, Chiefs, Vikings, and Seahawks are extremely close, and the Jets may be on the outside looking in despite double digit wins. The other division that is close, the NFC East, looks to be the Redskins to lose, which they certainly could this Saturday with a trip to Philly, who just has to win their last two games to win the division.

How likely are the Panthers to finish 16-0? Well, they'd now be favored to do so, finishing with wins over the Falcons and Buccaneers 52.2% of the time.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bengals 95.0% 5.0% 87.5% 52.3% 30.4% 15.3%
Patriots 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 55.8% 27.5% 12.5%
Broncos 60.6% 26.2% 60.7% 29.2% 14.4% 6.3%
Chiefs 39.4% 49.5% 50.1% 23.1% 11.5% 5.3%
Steelers 5.0% 73.9% 40.4% 17.6% 7.7% 3.2%
Jets 0.0% 45.5% 22.6% 9.6% 4.2% 1.6%
Texans 89.4% 0.0% 35.3% 11.5% 4.0% 1.3%
Colts 7.7% 0.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Jaguars 2.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ravens 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chargers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Titans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Raiders 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bills 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Bengals and Patriots flip-flopped positions atop the AFC, while in the NFC the Cardinals continue to lead the way in the NFL at 19.3%, followed by the Seahawks then the Panthers at just 12%. Matchups play a huge part in the Playoffs, and the Panthers may be on the wrong side of history because of it.