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2015 NFL Winning Stats Predictor Picks: Week 16

Each week we'll predict each game using the Winning Stats, as well as make picks as if we're competing in the Las Vegas SuperContest.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 of 2015 will go down as one of those weeks for the Predictor that just cannot be explained. It ended up 5-11 on the week, but I count five different games that were either a half point off or teams were in prime position to cover but got railroaded at the end. Jets missed by half a point in Dallas when they should have gone for a TD late instead of settling for a game-winning field goal; Panthers were up 35-7 before letting Giants score 21 in 4th quarter, then kicked GW FG to win by 3; Patriots kicked a field goal up 14 with a minute to go; Ravens were inside the 10 ready to score and get within 6 and throw a pick-six the other way; Broncos were up 27-10 with under two minutes to go in the first half, only to not score again and lose 34-27. Just a brutal day that with even a couple breaks would have been ok. Season record now dips below .500 at 108-110-6.

Picking winners was leaps and bounds better going 12-4, but I think it was a fairly easy week picking winners, as twelve favorites won their game. Season total is now north of 60%, 135-89. I'd like a really strong finish to the season, mostly because the pool I'm in I'm sitting in sixth place, just in the money. I had a good start with the Raiders Thursday night, and have a halftime lead with the Redskins, so I'm hoping it's a sign of good things to come.

SuperContest suffered the same fate as all the other picks, going 1-4, only hitting the Cardinals. Season record now 42-33. I need just four wins over the final two weeks to best last year, so let's just take care of that this week.

  • Bears +3 at Buccaneers
    Bears failed me last week, but despite this being a "revenge" game for Lovie Smith, I think the Bears beat an inconsistent Buccaneers team who isn't playing for much, but knows they might be playing 15-0 Carolina next week. 
  • Cowboys +6.5 at Bills
    This is one of those games that looks like a sure thing one way, so I'm going with the opposite here. I think the Cowboys just kinda hang around all day and cover.
  • 49ers +9.5 at Lions
    Doesn't matter to me how bad the 49ers are: there's no way the Lions should be 9.5 point favorites over anyone. I'll take a whole lot of points here.
  • Ravens +10 vs. Steelers
    Bitter rivals, I think the Ravens give the Steelers fits despite the clear talent disadvantage. I think the Steelers win, but it won't be by 10. And I'm assuming the inevitable Matt Schaub pick-6 happens too. 
  • Bengals +3.5 at Broncos
    This could easily end up being a 9-6 field goal fest, so I'll take the points with the better team.

Here are the rest of your Week 16 picks:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Raiders 28 Chargers 25 58.5%
Eagles 23 Redskins 24 51.7%
Lions 27 49ers 21 64.2%
Chiefs 29 Browns 21 71.9%
Titans 19 Texans 24 63.3%
Saints 29 Jaguars 28 52.5%
Jets 21 Patriots 23 54.6%
Falcons 17 Panthers 26 74.0%
Buccaneers 25 Bears 27 53.8%
Bills 26 Cowboys 24 55.9%
Vikings 27 Giants 22 63.2%
Dolphins 23 Colts 25 56.1%
Seahawks 26 Rams 16 76.4%
Cardinals 27 Packers 24 59.7%
Ravens 23 Steelers 26 59.2%
Broncos 19 Bengals 21 55.3%