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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 14: Dodged a Bullet

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Thanks to the Texans losing as well in Buffalo, the Colts stayed right with the Texans for the AFC Division championship.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

After last Sunday's blowout loss in Pittsburgh, I was expecting the worst for the Colts Playoff chances, but in all honesty it really didn't change all that much at all, despite playing one of the worst games of the entire NFL season. It certainly helped that the Texans finally lost a game as well, ending their four game winning streak, and makes the next two weeks extremely important.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 53.2% 0.2% 1.9% 54.0% 0.0% 2.1% 56.1%
Colts 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 44.8% 0.0% 0.4% 45.0% 0.0% 0.4% 45.4%
Jaguars 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Titans 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

The Texans lead in both the division race as well as Playoff chances, but the difference is really inconsequential. As has been fairly obvious for the past six weeks, the Week 15 game in Indianapolis will essentially decide the division. Colts win? 86%. Texans win? 20%. Winning this week for the Colts, along with beating Houston, means they either need to win just one of their final two games, or the Texans would have to lose just once in their other three games, including this week against the Patriots. The odds there? 96%. Seems pretty easy, right?

The biggest difference from last week for both teams is their Wild Card chances have virtually vanished after their losses to other Wild Card hopefuls. Unless either team wins their other 3 games to finish 9-7, I don't think either the Colts or the Texans will get a Wild Card spot, as I think at least two teams will get to 10 wins.

The Panthers have clinched their division, and have a 27% chance of running the table the rest of way, while the Bengals, Patriots, Cardinals, and Broncos are almost there (over 94% for each, 99% for first two). The Packers are now back in the driver's seat for the NFC North, leading 60% to 40% over the Vikings, and despite losing to the Romo-less Cowboys Monday night, the Predictor still has the Redskins atop the NFC East at 37%, followed by the Eagles at 33% then the Giants at 19.5%, Cowboys at 11.5%.  At least there's one other division that is even worse than the AFC South.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bengals 99.4% 0.6% 91.2% 59.1% 36.6% 19.9%
Patriots 99.3% 0.7% 84.3% 43.6% 21.6% 9.8%
Broncos 94.3% 5.1% 81.2% 40.2% 17.8% 7.6%
Chiefs 5.7% 77.1% 44.1% 18.8% 8.2% 3.5%
Jets 0.7% 53.3% 26.7% 11.4% 5.2% 2.3%
Texans 54.0% 2.1% 27.3% 10.6% 4.3% 1.7%
Steelers 0.6% 36.6% 17.6% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3%
Colts 45.0% 0.4% 17.7% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Bills 0.0% 20.2% 7.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Raiders 0.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chargers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ravens 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Titans 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Bengals remain the AFC favorite, about twice as likely as the Patriots, with the Broncos, Chiefs, and Jets following behind. The Colts fell from 2% to 0.5%, so their really small odds got even smaller, but that isn't really that surprising. On the NFC side the Cardinals continue to be the NFL's Super Bowl favorite at 22%, besting the Panthers who sit at just 14% despite most likely having home field advantage. You'll also see the Seahawks skyrocketing up the chart, who have gone from 3% to 10% in just two weeks.