The day is finally here. Draft Day 2015. A day that will live in triumph or infamy for many years to come. Here's what I would do if I were Ryan Grigson as Round 1 descends upon us.
- Be Patient and let the board fall to him
While I've been a banner man for TeamTradeback, the most important thing for Ryan Grigson to do is be patient and let the board fall to him. This means don't be dead set on taking a specific player at a specific position when pick 29 comes on the clock. Great players may fall. I expect several runs early in this Draft, which includes OLB and OT to start. If there's a run, other quality players at other positions will fall. Don't be so concrete in your mindset that you can't be flexible. If a player like Danny Shelton, Landon Collins or Andrus Peat somehow falls, then you have to take them.
- Don't Reach
The next most important thing Grigson has to do tonight and not reach. Actually, this could be the most important thing he needs to do. Grigson is kind of known for his itchy trigger finger in Free Agency and in some respect in the Draft. This season though he's shown a significant amount of restraint in free agency and we only hope he doesn't screw it up this weekend.
When I say don't reach, I mean know what a player's value actually is to other teams, as best as you can. For example, don't take a Round 4 safety in Round 1 just because you think someone ahead of you may take him in Round 2. If that's the case, then you've got to know when to fold them.
- Know when to deal
Grigson is kind of known for his interest in making trades. Do I expect the Colts to come out of this Draft with 9 players. Absolutely not. I expect Grigson to make several moves, which is both awesome and simultaneously terrifying. With nine picks in this Draft, eight of which can be traded, I expect Grigson to be jumping around the Draft at least once, if not several times.
Just to use the earlier example, if Grigson is really set on taking that Round 4 safety in Round 1 but knows someone else may take them in Round 2, it makes the most sense to trade out of Round 1 but before that other team in Round 2 to grab the Round 4 safety plus an extra Round 3 or Round 4 pick. That's the best thing any of us can hope for if Grigson is set on taking a certain Round 4 safety.
- Acquire future assets, Don't give them up
If the Draft has taught us anything, it's that a team will make stupid decisions to draft "their guy." This includes trading multiple future picks to jump up only a few spots. In this case, it would make a lot of sense for Grigson to burn a pick here or there to get picks in next year's draft. I think he realized how much harder it is to grab your guys when you only have five total picks in the Draft. I doubt that ever happens to the Colts again under Grigson, who values his scouting background above all else. So my best philosophy is to acquire future picks from other teams, if your guy isn't there.
- Be Patient
Oh wait, you mean I've already listed this on here. Good! It's that important. Grigson has to be patient in how he handles the Draft. He was patient in free agency and it paid off huge. If he can be patient in the Draft, it too will pay off huge for the Colts in the long run.
So if I were Ryan Grigson, what would I do?
I let the board fall to me. I don't trade up, even if a guy I love is falling. If the guy I love is there, I draft him. If none of my guys are available, I don't reach but instead try to get a team to trade with and drop back into early Round 2.
What many don't realize is the value of the "Year 5 Option" that comes with every Round 1 pick. Picks in Rounds 2-7 all receive four year contracts but no fifth year option. My guess is there is a team that will want to trade up to grab a QB, OT or WR specifically for that fifth year option. If that's the case, I'm dropping back. If most of my guys will be gone at that point where I'd be picking in Round 2, I ask for a Round 3 this year and a Round 1 pick next year in return, since next year's class is rumored to be better.
If trading isn't an option, I take the best defensive player available or one of a couple offensive tackles. I don't reach. At 29, someone should fall that will be an excellent value.
In Rounds 2-7 I don't be afraid to move around. If it costs me one of my Round 6 picks or my Round 7 pick, so be it. I will try my darnedest not to trade my Round 3 or 4 pick to move up in Rounds 1 or 2. Those early picks are incredibly valuable to me.
By the end of the draft, I hope to solidify basically every position on my defense and upgrade my running back and offensive line. If that's what I get when I come out of this draft, I'll be a very happy GM.
Love my thoughts? Hate them? Leave your comments below or get at me on Twitter, @Reed_StephenT .