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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 2: Colts Still Safely Atop AFC South

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. How do the Colts look after their Week 1 loss in Buffalo?

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Expectations are so fickle aren't they? After just one game, the Colts, who were picked by more media members than any other AFC team to make the Super Bowl, are falling apart at the seams and can't possibly compete for a Super Bowl. Rest assured, statistics show no emotion, and they can bring us back to earth a bit.

Just like this year, the 2014 Colts lost their first game of the season, and sat behind the 1-0 Titans, who looked fantastic in their Week 1 demolishing of the Chiefs. In fact, in looking at last year's percentages after Week 1, the Titans were the favorites to win the division (61%), and had nearly an 80% chance of making the Playoffs. They won once the rest of the season. The Colts, meanwhile, had just a 31% chance of winning the division and just 52% of making the Playoffs, and they clinched with several weeks remaining in the season. Please don't fall into the trap of making sweeping generalization after just one week.

Here's how the AFC South looks after Week 1:

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 9.4 7.1% 10.9% 16.3% 22.5% 3.3% 4.3% 56.8% 18.0% 7.7% 64.5%
Texans 8.3 2.6% 4.9% 8.7% 14.1% 3.5% 5.3% 30.3% 7.4% 8.7% 39.0%
Titans 7.1 0.5% 1.4% 2.9% 5.7% 1.7% 2.9% 10.5% 1.9% 4.6% 15.1%
Jaguars 5.4 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 0.3% 1.3% 3.7%

The Colts aren't the overwhelming favorite they were before this past weekend, but are still the favorites to win the division at 57%. Despite a loss as well, the Texans are 2nd at 30%, followed by the Titans (who beat the worst team in the NFL, according to the Winning Stats, the Buccaneers) at just 10.5%. Until we get into full-blown panic mode about winning the division, the "BYE" column is the one I'm most concerned about, and it went from over 50% to 18% in one week. I don't trust the Colts going anywhere in January, so they need the Bye to have any realistic shot at getting to the Super Bowl.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Broncos 61.1% 18.2% 64.6% 37.7% 21.3% 11.6%
Bills 47.8% 26.7% 57.7% 31.8% 17.0% 8.8%
Bengals 71.6% 6.7% 58.9% 32.1% 17.0% 8.4%
Colts 56.8% 7.7% 43.4% 21.8% 10.8% 5.3%
Patriots 26.8% 28.7% 37.5% 18.7% 9.3% 4.4%
Jets 22.4% 27.6% 31.9% 15.1% 7.2% 3.3%
Chiefs 20.9% 24.3% 27.6% 12.2% 5.4% 2.3%
Texans 30.3% 8.7% 22.1% 9.5% 4.1% 1.8%
Chargers 16.3% 20.3% 20.4% 8.3% 3.3% 1.3%
Steelers 13.5% 6.7% 10.8% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Ravens 13.7% 7.6% 10.7% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6%
Titans 10.5% 4.6% 6.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%
Dolphins 3.1% 7.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Raiders 1.8% 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Browns 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

As you'd expect, the Colts Super Bowl odds took a big hit, going down over 10% to just over 5%. The Broncos, thanks to a stellar defensive effort, now are the favorites to come out of the AFC, with the Bills and Bengals following closely behind before you get to the Colts and Patriots. You'll also notice another media darling team, the Dolphins, are not very high at all. They have a very good chance of starting 2-0, as they play Jacksonville this week. But I still don't think they're very good.

The overall Super Bowl favorites are the Packers (12.4%), followed by the Panthers (10.4%) and Cowboys (9.8%). It's certainly very wide open, as nobody is better than a 7-1 favorite at this point, according to the Winning Stats.