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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 3: Crisis Mode With Optimism!

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. After an 0-2 start, have the Colts fallen out of "first place" in the AFC South?

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As if last year's 0-2 start wasn't enough to get your blood boiling, this year's re-creation looks, on the surface, to be even worse. With the 20-7 loss to the Jets Monday night, the Colts fell behind the Titans and Jaguars in the AFC South, who both sit at 1-1, while they remain tied with the Texans at 0-2.

Last year entering Week 3, however, the outlook was a little rosier for the Colts. While their overall win total was slightly behind the Texans, their chances of making the Playoffs were at 46.5%, higher than the 41% for the Texans. This year, mostly due to the schedule and partly due to how they played so far this season, their odds to make the Playoffs sit at just 36%, behind the aforementioned Texans and not either of the teams who currently sit ahead of them in the standings.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.0 1.8% 4.2% 10.1% 28.5% 1.0% 2.0% 44.6% 6.0% 3.1% 47.6%
Colts 7.7 0.9% 2.4% 7.0% 23.0% 0.9% 2.0% 33.4% 3.4% 2.9% 36.3%
Jaguars 6.4 0.2% 0.7% 2.2% 9.0% 0.6% 1.4% 12.1% 0.9% 2.1% 14.2%
Titans 6.2 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 8.0% 0.3% 1.0% 9.9% 0.5% 1.3% 11.2%

Now I mentioned optimism in the title, and it's definitely there. Over the next 3 weeks the Colts will play each of their AFC South rivals, including two on the road. What happens if they win all 3? They jump back to 68.5% of making the Playoffs, and 66% to win the division. It won't say much about how much better they are against the rest of the league (their play in the next 3 weeks will absolutely determine that, though), but they'll at least be back to being the heavy favorite in their division, giving you a ticket to the dance. From there anything's possible.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Broncos 79.6% 9.1% 76.5% 45.9% 26.5% 15.0%
Bengals 68.8% 11.4% 62.3% 33.6% 17.5% 8.8%
Jets 41.8% 33.5% 56.7% 30.0% 15.4% 7.8%
Patriots 36.7% 34.9% 52.3% 27.1% 13.9% 7.0%
Bills 18.5% 33.5% 34.5% 16.9% 8.2% 4.1%
Steelers 23.3% 14.4% 22.7% 10.5% 4.6% 2.1%
Texans 44.6% 3.1% 26.1% 11.0% 4.6% 2.0%
Colts 33.4% 2.9% 18.4% 7.5% 3.0% 1.3%
Chargers 9.1% 13.8% 11.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Chiefs 6.3% 15.5% 10.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6%
Raiders 5.1% 9.5% 6.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Ravens 4.8% 4.1% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Dolphins 3.0% 8.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
Jaguars 12.1% 2.1% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Titans 9.9% 1.3% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Browns 3.1% 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

The Colts have gone from favorites to make the Super Bowl in the AFC to just 1.3% in a span of two games. Save outstanding performances against the Patriots, Broncos, and Panthers, I doubt they sniff the top 3 the rest of the season. You can see the Broncos sitting atop the AFC for the moment, thanks to their road win in Kansas City Thursday night. The Jets made a big jump this week, moving up to 3rd. I'm skeptical about whether they can maintain the ridiculous pace they're forcing turnovers, but they may be hanging around for a lot longer than anyone thought just two weeks ago.