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2015 NFL Playoff Odds Week 4: Almost A Coin Flip

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Have the Colts gotten their spot in "first place" back from the Texans?

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

After three weeks of the NFL season, we start to see teams separate themselves from the others, and statistics start to mean a little more. It's obviously still pretty early, so we're still dealing with a small sample size of data, but if you give the Winning Stats Playoff Odds the "smell test", they look pretty reasonable, at least to me.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.2 1.5% 3.7% 9.8% 31.0% 0.9% 1.9% 46.1% 5.2% 2.9% 48.9%
Colts 8.0 0.9% 3.1% 8.3% 28.9% 0.8% 2.0% 41.3% 4.0% 2.8% 44.1%
Titans 5.9 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 5.5% 0.2% 0.6% 6.5% 0.2% 0.8% 7.3%
Jaguars 5.7 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 5.2% 0.1% 0.5% 6.2% 0.2% 0.6% 6.8%

The Colts and Texans both won in Week 3, so while the positions didn't change between the two teams, the Colts closed the gap significantly after their division win in Tennessee. The Colts jumped up 8% over last week in making the Playoffs, almost seeing their chances as a coin flip at 44.1%, while the Texans stayed pretty steady, going up just one percent. If you want to be really optimistic about the Colts chances, they have a 1% chance of still being the #1 seed in the Playoffs. The Broncos and Patriots are both at ~23% to be the #1 seed, with the Bengals right behind them.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Patriots 46.9% 34.8% 63.2% 34.9% 19.1% 10.3%
Bills 35.3% 41.5% 57.5% 32.1% 17.8% 10.0%
Broncos 73.9% 9.8% 67.4% 36.4% 18.7% 9.7%
Bengals 69.2% 13.8% 64.8% 33.9% 17.2% 8.6%
Jets 17.1% 34.6% 32.9% 15.7% 7.6% 3.6%
Steelers 27.2% 18.3% 28.7% 13.5% 6.4% 3.0%
Texans 46.1% 2.9% 24.9% 10.2% 4.1% 1.8%
Colts 41.3% 2.8% 21.9% 8.9% 3.7% 1.6%
Raiders 12.9% 15.5% 14.5% 5.9% 2.3% 0.9%
Chargers 10.5% 11.1% 11.1% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7%
Ravens 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Chiefs 2.7% 5.6% 3.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Titans 6.5% 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Dolphins 0.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Jaguars 6.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Browns 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

The AFC East has the top two teams in terms of AFC Super Bowl odds, both hitting 10%. The Colts chances of winning the Super Bowl got a slight bump to 1.6%, up from 1.3% before last week. The overall favorite to win it all? The Packers at nearly 14%. There also was a lot of talk about the Dolphins being Playoff caliber before the season started, but the Winning Stats weren't fans of them at all. Now you can see they have just a 0.1% of winning the Super Bowl, and have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. Good luck to them.