We had a so-so week last week, going 7-7 Against the Spread, but missing out on three of our top four games (we nailed the Titans winning straight up), so we ended up down about $40 on the week. Nothing terrible, but I don't like losing money at any point.
We got back on track picking winners, going 9-5, giving us a little better season record. With more data to use, picking winners always gets better as we go along, so I'd expect more weeks like this.
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1091-988-40 (52.4%) ATS, 1340-781-4 (63.2%) SU
2016 Record: 39-37-1 (51.3%) ATS (-$181.17), 43-34 (55.8%) SU
Week 5 Record: 7-7 ATS (-$47.50), 9-5 SU
I know this game is going the way of the Chargers so far, I can't trust that they will hang on. The Chargers lose another heartbreaker, but keep it close enough to cover.
Broncos 22, Chargers 20 (SU Win%: 56%, ATS Win%: 55.4%)
First start of the season for Colin Kaepernick will be on the road against one of the hotter teams in the NFL, the Bills, winners of three straight over the Cardinals, Patriots, and Rams. Line is pretty spot on here with the Bills winning by a touchdown at home.
Bills 27, 49ers 20 (SU Win%: 68.2%, ATS Win%: 55.7%)
A matchup of the Colts last two opponents, I'd have to say the Bears are a better team than they Jaguars, but it's pretty close. Since they're at home, I'll take the Bears by 3, very close to the spread here.
Bears 25, Jaguars 22 (SU Win%: 57.8%, ATS Win%: 50%)
Rams (+3.5) at Lions - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Lions love playing close games, especially against teams with a pulse, so I'm taking the field goal with the hook here and hoping for that close game. This might be the week we see the Rams Offense open up a bit and Tavon Austin runs wild in the secondary.
Lions 26, Rams 25 (SU Win%: 53%, ATS Win%: 61.8%)
The Dolphins are a disaster once again this year, and the Steelers seem to be hitting their stride, now that they have all their playmakers back. Steelers big.
Steelers 28, Dolphins 18 (SU Win%: 74.6%, ATS Win%: 53%)
Bengals (+8.5) at Patriots - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
I'm trying to figure out why the Patriots are always a lot less of a favorite than the Vegas line, but haven't found anything as of yet. The Bengals aren't nearly as bad as they played last week in Dallas, and they'll be a desperate team with as well as the Steelers are playing.
Patriots 26, Bengals 25 (SU Win%: 52.4%, ATS Win%: 80.2%)
The return of Cam Newton will be a welcome sight for the Panthers, and these two Defenses will give up a lot of points. Line looks right, Panthers by a field goal.
Panthers 28, Saints 25 (SU Win%: 55.9%, ATS Win%: 55.4%)
The Giants have serious issues on Offense, and both of these teams love playing close games, so I'll take the points, but think the Ravens win straight up, as I think the Giants find a way to lose.
Ravens 22, Giants 20 (SU Win%: 56.7%, ATS Win%: 65.4%)
Browns (+7) at Titans - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Titans have been surprisingly good the last couple weeks, and the Browns are the Browns. Think a full touchdown is a little too much, but Titans win easily.
Titans 27, Browns 21 (SU Win%: 67%, ATS Win%: 53%)
The Eagles came out flat last week in Detroit, and don't think they do that again in a Divisional game in Washington. The Redskins need a win here to keep up with the Cowboys and Eagles, but don't think it happens. Once again, We're pretty close to the Vegas line.
Eagles 27, Redskins 24 (SU Win%: 58%, ATS Win%: 59.8%)
Andy Reid is extremely good after a bye week, and we'll see the first real game for Jamaal Charles this season. The Raiders have been impressive this season, but I think the Chiefs will be too much here, winning a key divisional game.
Chiefs 24, Raiders 22 (SU Win%: 54.5%, ATS Win%: 54.5%)
Cowboys (+4.5) at Packers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Winning Stats aren't big fans of the Packers, and the Cowboys just keep getting better and better. I'll gladly take the 4.5 points here with Dallas.
Packers 26, Cowboys 25 (SU Win%: 52.6%, ATS Win%: 67.3%)
Seahawks at home, coming off their bye week, playing a Falcons team that's playing outstandingly so far this year, especially on Offense. Like several other games this week, the Winning Stats agree with the Vegas line, so Seattle by a touchdown.
Seahawks 29, Falcons 22 (SU Win%: 68%, ATS Win%: 50%)
Colts (+3) at Texans - Sunday 8:30 pm ET
Strength vs. Strength, Weakness vs. Weakness. The Colts still have this thing against the Texans, and I think they come out victorious in Houston, so I'm obviously taking the three points.
Colts 21, Texans 20 (SU Win%: 50.7%, ATS Win%: 60.4%)
Jets (+7.5) at Cardinals - Monday 8:30 pm ET
Carson Palmer returns against the league's worst pass defense. I do think the Jets will hang around though, and getting the extra half point on the 7 is nice, so I'll take the points.
Cardinals 26, Jets 20 (SU Win%: 65.2%, ATS Win%: 59.1%)