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2016 NFL Playoff Odds Week 7 - Hail Mary Time

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Two games back and 0-2 in the Division? Slim, slim chances.

Tim Warner/Getty Images

The Colts are 2-4, so naturally the talk of Playoffs is pretty far-fetched. However, it is only Week 7, so there is a chance of any team (well, maybe not the Browns) making the Playoffs. Being two games down to the Texans, as well as the tiebreaker, is a tough hill to climb, and that's without mentioning the fact that the Colts need to play much better in order to win games. Here's how the AFC South sits today:

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.9 3.4% 10.0% 14.0% 21.8% 2.2% 6.4% 49.2% 13.4% 8.6% 57.8%
Titans 9.1 3.7% 9.9% 12.6% 17.0% 3.9% 8.4% 43.2% 13.6% 12.3% 55.5%
Jaguars 5.9 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 3.4% 0.2% 0.8% 4.4% 0.3% 1.0% 5.4%
Colts 6.2 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 2.0% 0.4% 1.4% 3.1% 0.3% 1.8% 4.9%

The Texans sit atop the division, but look how close those pesky Titans are, almost neck and neck with Houston, and actually average slightly more wins per season than Houston, although they have a slightly less chance of making the Playoffs (tie-breakers). The Colts sit at just 5% to make the Playoffs, and average a 6-10 record. I'll be honest though: I'd rather the Colts go 6-10 than 8-8 and miss the Playoffs, because you'll be drafting in the top 10 rather than the late teens. As an example, the Colts went 6-10 in 2001, and it landed them Dwight Freeney at pick #11. I'd be ok finding another guy like that after a disappointing season.

As far as the rest of the NFL, the Vikings are obviously the biggest favorites, winning their division 94% of the time and getting the #1 seed over half the time. The Patriots also sit over 90% making the Playoffs, but the Bills are stride-for-stride with them, thanks to their win over them in Week 4, and making the Playoffs 97% of the time themselves. Other top teams, in order, are the Cowboys and Cardinals, who are both over 75%. The Steelers would be the favorites in the AFC North, but the injury to Ben Roethlisberger has them just barely behind the Ravens for the Division title, as they've actually played pretty well this season.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

The Bills are your surprise favorites in the AFC to make and win the Super Bowl, coming in ahead of the Patriots, who have that Week 4 game still dangling over them. As the season goes on that game will mean less and less, so this will even itself out as we move through the season. Obviously the Patriots are the heavy Vegas favorite, which is well earned, but it'll take a few weeks to get more data, making that awful game against the Bills count for less. The Colts only won the Super Bowl 31 out of 50,000 times, so it ain't happening.

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bills 51.8% 36.1% 70.5% 42.1% 25.8% 12.5%
Patriots 48.0% 42.4% 69.2% 37.4% 20.3% 8.8%
Broncos 38.7% 23.2% 44.6% 22.7% 11.0% 4.0%
Chiefs 42.8% 18.5% 42.6% 21.6% 10.2% 3.8%
Ravens 47.6% 10.3% 37.8% 18.6% 9.0% 3.2%
Titans 43.2% 12.3% 35.1% 16.9% 7.8% 2.8%
Steelers 41.1% 11.4% 31.5% 13.9% 5.8% 2.0%
Chargers 8.9% 13.8% 13.4% 6.3% 2.9% 1.1%
Texans 49.2% 8.6% 30.5% 11.3% 4.0% 1.0%
Bengals 11.3% 4.2% 7.9% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5%
Raiders 9.6% 15.3% 12.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Colts 3.1% 1.8% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Jaguars 4.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jets 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The three Super Bowl favorites, all within about a percent and a half of each other, are the Cardinals, Vikings, and Seahawks. The Cowboys have the 4th best chance in the NFC, but it's less than 4%, despite how well they've been playing.