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2016 NFL Playoff Odds Week 4 - Slipping Away

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. Two games back just four games into the season is not a good sign for the Colts.

Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports

Over the years we've been used to the leader of the AFC South being two games up going into October, and almost every time it was the Colts doing the leading. In 2016, however, the Colts are on the opposite end of that spectrum, tied at 1-3 with the Titans and Jaguars, trailing the 3-1 Texans, and things look pretty bleak for the Colts. We are only a quarter of the way through the season, so I can't say definitively that the Colts are toast, but the numbers don't look great after losing a very winnable game in the division to the Jaguars, while the Texans beat the Titans.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.8 3.4% 6.6% 15.0% 45.7% 0.3% 0.8% 70.8% 10.1% 1.2% 71.9%
Colts 6.9 0.2% 0.9% 4.0% 14.4% 0.7% 1.5% 19.5% 1.1% 2.2% 21.7%
Titans 5.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 5.0% 0.1% 0.4% 5.9% 0.2% 0.5% 6.4%
Jaguars 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0%

It makes a lot of sense that the Texans are now the heavy favorite to win the AFC South, winning it 71% of the time, while the Colts still hold the 2nd spot at 20%, so a long shot but not completely dead. You can see the division's chance of getting one of the two Wild Card spots is virtually nothing (4% combined), and they are most likely, just like 2015, destined for the #4 seed. They also combine for the least number of wins of any division in football, so we're once again looking at a truly bad division.

Not a lot of other surprises around the league, as the Seahawks and Vikings are both north of 90% making the Playoffs, while the Broncos and Eagles are right behind them above 80%. The Bills have catapulted up the standings the past two weeks after wins over Arizona and New England, but we've seen flashes from them early on in seasons before, for them to only fizzle out as we get into November and December.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Broncos 66.5% 21.7% 76.6% 44.5% 24.7% 11.2%
Steelers 51.7% 25.1% 59.2% 31.3% 16.4% 7.0%
Bengals 31.0% 29.4% 44.4% 24.9% 13.7% 5.9%
Chiefs 17.7% 30.7% 32.9% 17.1% 8.9% 3.7%
Bills 43.7% 11.7% 36.2% 18.2% 9.1% 3.7%
Patriots 44.8% 13.3% 38.8% 19.0% 9.0% 3.6%
Raiders 13.2% 29.1% 26.2% 11.7% 5.3% 2.1%
Texans 70.8% 1.2% 35.4% 13.5% 5.0% 1.5%
Ravens 17.3% 21.1% 23.6% 9.9% 4.1% 1.2%
Chargers 2.7% 9.5% 6.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Colts 19.5% 2.2% 9.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Jets 11.1% 4.1% 7.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Titans 5.9% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Jaguars 3.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Dolphins 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

We see the lone undefeated team in the AFC, the Broncos, sit atop the conference with an 11% chance of winning the Super Bowl, now the 2nd favorite overall. The Patriots are lower than I expect their actual odds would be, but they laid a giant pile on Sunday, so it's weighting them down considerably with the small sample size. The Colts now sit at around 200/1 to win the Super Bowl, while the favorite Seahawks have a 32% chance of winning it all, or a paltry 2/1.