The rollercoaster 2016 continued in Week 4, as a lot of the toss-up games were winners Against the Spread, but the games the Winning Stats had the strongest confidence in totally face-planted, including the Chiefs disaster in Pittsburgh, and the Browns, who were inside the 15 yard line to potentially lead by 10, only to fumble and give up touchdowns on the next two subsequent drives, killing the cover. So close, yet so far away.
Picking winners has also been a big struggle the last two weeks, with this week being under .500 once again at 7-8. I hope it's just because it is early, but it's not giving me the warm and fuzzies. Let's use Week 5 as our jumping off point for the season.
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1084-981-40 (52.4%) ATS, 1331-776-4 (63.1%) SU
2016 Record: 32-30-1 (51.6%) ATS (-$142.67), 34-29 (54.0%) SU
Week 4 Record: 8-7 ATS (-$234.97), 7-8 SU
Cardinals (-3.5) at 49ers - Thursday 8:30 pm ET
No Carson Palmer at QB for the Cardinals, so former Colt Drew Stanton will get the start. The Cardinals have been a giant disappointment so far this season, and playing on a short week with a new QB won't help things. The 49ers have struggled since their Week 1 trouncing of the Rams, and I think they keep this close at home. Cardinals win, no cover though.
Cardinals 18, 49ers 17 (SU Win%: 50.2%, ATS Win%: 64.3%)
Redskins (+4) at Ravens - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
There are several teams that are going to play close games every week, and the first one we come across is the Ravens, so I think they win late with a Justin Tucker field goal, because he never misses.
Ravens 26, Redskins 24 (SU Win%: 53.4%, ATS Win%: 63.7%)
Patriots (-10.5) at Browns - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Tom Brady is back, but the Browns have been a thorn in the Patriots side the last two times they played. Brady knocks some rust off and they win, but it's not going to be this massive blowout everyone is expecting. Hold your nose and do it.
Patriots 26, Browns 21 (SU Win%: 68.1%, ATS Win%: 68.8%)
Eagles (-3) at Lions - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Since beating the Colts in Week 1, the Lions have lost three straight, including games to the Titans and Bears (yeesh). The Eagles are rested and will make easy work of the Lions in Detroit. Eagles win and cover the field goal.
Eagles 29, Lions 26 (SU Win%: 64.8%, ATS Win%: 55.4%)
Bears (+4.5) at Colts - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Full write-up later, but I'm not buying the Colts until they show me otherwise. They should win, but can't pick them to cover.
Colts 26, Bears 23 (SU Win%: 54.2%, ATS Win%: 62.8%)
Titans (+3.5) at Dolphins - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Miami is still awful, and Tennessee is just waiting to break out after showing brief glimpses this season. Titans go on the road and win outright.
Titans 24, Dolphins 23 (SU Win%: 52.8%, ATS Win%: 66.8%)
Texans (+6.5) at Vikings - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
I love the Vikings, but in a low scoring game (which this most certainly will be), I'm going to take the almost-touchdown spread with the visiting Texans, but a comfortable win at home for Minnesota to go to 5-0.
Vikings 20, Texans 15 (SU Win%: 69.3%, ATS Win%: 53.4%)
Jets (+7) at Steelers - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Buy low, sell high. Steelers really high after an outstanding performance against the Chiefs last week, who demolished the Jets two weeks. The NFL isn't nearly as transitive as you think it is. Give me the points.
Steelers 25, Jets 22 (SU Win%: 61.5%, ATS Win%: 61.6%)
Falcons (+5.5) at Broncos - Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Top Offense vs. Top Defense should be a lot of fun to watch, and I think the Broncos win their 3rd game against the NFC South in five games, but it'll stay close with a late TD by the Falcons to cover.
Broncos 26, Falcons 23 (SU Win%: 64.3%, ATS Win%: 54.7%)
Bengals (-1) at Cowboys - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Dak Prescott has looked impressive the last two weeks, but they're finally playing a legitimate Defense this week in the Bengals, who have had some extra time to prepare for the rookie QB. The Bengals have to continue to win to keep up with the Steelers, so Cincinnati gets it done in Dallas.
Bengals 26, Cowboys 22 (SU Win%: 66.5%, ATS Win%: 66.4%)
Bills (+2) at Rams - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Something has gotten into the Bills the last two weeks, and the Rams, in order to end up at their ultimate 8-8 finish, can't really go to 4-1 can they? Bills win outright in LA.
Bills 24, Rams 22 (SU Win%: 54.1%, ATS Win%: 58.1%)
Chargers (+3.5) at Raiders - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Chargers have led in the 4th quarter in all four of their games this season, so I expect them to do the same again this week, and once again lose late on a Janikowski field goal. Raiders win to keep pace with the Broncos, but Chargers cover.
Raiders 25, Chargers 24 (SU Win%: 51.3%, ATS Win%: 61.8%)
Giants (+7.5) at Packers - Sunday 8:30 pm ET
I talked earlier about the Ravens playing all games close? The Giants are in the same boat (save for last week). This is the same spread the Packers had over the Lions, and the Giants are a better team than the Lions. I expect Odell Beckham to have a monster night, with the Packers coming out in the end.
Packers 26, Giants 23 (SU Win%: 60.2%, ATS Win%: 63.8%)
Buccaneers (+6.5) at Panthers - Monday 8:30 pm ET
Cam Newton gets an extra day to recover from his concussion of last week, and they'll protect him more so than usual. Think the line here is pretty spot on, so Panthers by a TD without the extra point.
Panthers 27, Buccaneers 21 (SU Win%: 70.9%, ATS Win%: 50.0%)