Google Doc with all picks, percentages, and money wagered
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1119-1027-43 (52.1%) ATS, 1379-810-6 (63.0%) SU
2016 Record: 67-76-4 (46.9%) ATS (-$467.09), 82-63-2 (56.5%) SU
Week 10 Record: 8-6 ATS (-$4.99), 8-6 SU
Saints (+3.5) at Panthers - Thursday 8:30 pm ET
Should be a high-scoring Thursday night game, and despite the Saints killing me last week, the Winning Stats is back on them, on the road, in Carolina. Especially like the hook here with the field goal.
Saints 28, Panthers 26 (SU Win%: 56.5%, ATS Win%: 68.7%)
Bills (+2.5) at Bengals - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Bengals keep finding different ways to lose (or tie) each and every week, and this week will be no different. Bills win on a late field goal.
Bills 29, Bengals 27 (SU Win%: 55.4%, ATS Win%: 59%)
Steelers (-8) at Browns - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Steelers are reeling, so what's the best medicine for losing four straight games? A trip to Cleveland, which cures everything that ails you. Spread looks pretty close.
Steelers 30, Browns 23 (SU Win%: 69.5%, ATS Win%: 51.1%)
Ravens (+7) at Cowboys - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Spread looks to be dead on here, and the Cowboys win by a touchdown at home, going to 9-1. Ravens have the best Defense, but the worst Offense in the NFL, and that #1 Defense won't be enough to stop the Cowboys.
Cowboys 26, Ravens 19 (SU Win%: 67.6%, ATS Win%: 53%)
Jaguars (+6.5) at Lions - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Lions find themselves in first place in the NFC North, and a couple home games in a row here against the Jaguars and the sliding Vikings could make them look real good. Lions win, but not by a TD.
Lions 30, Jaguars 26 (SU Win%: 60.6%, ATS Win%: 58.1%)
Titans (+3) at Colts - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
There's lots of optimism in Indianapolis after they beat the Packers two weeks ago, but the Titans one-upped them last week by destroying Green Bay. The Titans haven't won in Indy since 2007, and just like the Texans streak ended last year, the Titans streak ends this year. Tennessee wins outright.
Titans 32, Colts 28 (SU Win%: 59.8%, ATS Win%: 76.2%)
Buccaneers (+7.5) at Chiefs - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
This is a bad matchup for the Chiefs, even though you could argue they're the hottest team in the NFL, coming off a 17 point comeback last week in Carolina. I still think they win, but it's going to be really close.
Chiefs 23, Buccaneers 22 (SU Win%: 50.6%, ATS Win%: 78.1%)
Cardinals (PK) at Vikings - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Vikings started 5-0, but have lost four straight games since their bye week. The Cardinals have also been a disappointment this season, sitting at 4-4-1, but playing at a high level without the results. Both Cardinals starting WRs are from Minneapolis, so expect them to try and have big games, and the Vikings slide continues.
Cardinals 22, Vikings 20 (SU Win%: 55.2%, ATS Win%: 52.5%)
Bears (+7.5) at Giants - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Winning Stats are finally starting to come around on the Giants, but they still have a bad habit of playing to the level of their opponent, even though they keep winning. They win here again, but the Bears hang around enough to cover the spread.
Giants 26, Bears 20 (SU Win%: 65.4%, ATS Win%: 59.1%)
Dolphins (-2.5) at Rams - Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Jared Goff makes his NFL debut, and the Dolphins have won four straight. Dolphins win and cover.
Dolphins 23, Rams 19 (SU Win%: 60.5%, ATS Win%: 59.8%)
Patriots (-13) at 49ers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Patriots showed some flaws a week ago against Seattle, and one of the strangest losses by the Patriots over the past couple years was to Chip Kelly's Eagles. Obviously the Patriots should win, but I'm going to take nearly two touchdowns here. My only concern is the Patriots are really the only team that can consistently beat double-digit spreads.
Patriots 28, 49ers 23 (SU Win%: 63.1%, ATS Win%: 72.4%)
Eagles (+6.5) at Seahawks - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Low scoring, defensive battle where the Seahawks find a way to win at the end, like they always seem to do. Touchdown is too much here.
Seahawks 20, Eagles 19 (SU Win%: 51.7%, ATS Win%: 72.3%)
Packers (+2.5) at Redskins - Sunday 8:30 pm ET
The Packers are in free-fall, and the Redskins are good enough to keep them down on the mat, even though there will be a stretch where they look horrible. Something is seriously wrong with the Packers, and I'm not taking them until they find it.
Redskins 29, Packers 26 (SU Win%: 58.9%, ATS Win%: 59.8%)
Texans (+5.5) at Raiders - Monday 8:30 pm ET
Houston may be 6-3, but they aren't nearly as good as their record shows. The Raiders are every bit as good as their 7-2 record. Oakland wins handily in Mexico City.
Raiders 28, Texans 20 (SU Win%: 70.7%, ATS Win%: 61.3%)