Short on pleasantries this week. Let's get to the picks.
Google Doc with all picks, percentages, and money wagered
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1105-1015-42 (52.1%) ATS, 1363-799-6 (63.0%) SU
2016 Record: 53-64-3 (45.4%) ATS (-$449.34), 66-52-2 (55.8%) SU
Week 8 Record: 5-7-1 ATS (-$50.75), 7-5-1 SU
Falcons (-4) at Buccaneers - Thursday 8:30 pm ET
Definitely was high scoring, but Tampa Bay couldn't hang with the Falcons.
Falcons 31, Buccaneers 29 (SU Win%: 52.2%, ATS Win%: 63.7%)
Steelers (PK) at Ravens - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Ben Roethlisberger is going to play, but who knows how effective he will be, especially if he has no mobility. The Steelers have by far the better roster, but the Ravens will hang around in a close game, right with the spread.
Steelers 22, Ravens 21 (SU Win%: 52.9%, ATS Win%: 52.5%)
Cowboys (-7) at Browns - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
This spread looks good in a shootout, as the Browns lost their best chance for a win last week against the Jets. Cowboys win their seventh straight.
Cowboys 33, Browns 26 (SU Win%: 72%, ATS Win%: 53%)
Jaguars (+7) at Chiefs - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Jaguars get a week to prepare for Nick Foles, so they should be much better equipped to stop him than the Colts were last week. Spread is too many here, as the Chiefs win but less than a TD.
Chiefs 26, Jaguars 21 (SU Win%: 69.1%, ATS Win%: 56.6%)
Jets (+3.5) at Dolphins - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
Amazingly, one of these teams will leave Miami on a three-game winning streak (unless we see a third tie in as many weeks). I'll take the Dolphins, but the Jets with a field goal and the hook is too much to pass up.
Dolphins 25, Jets 22 (SU Win%: 59.2%, ATS Win%: 59.8%)
Lions (+5.5) at Vikings - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
The Vikings seem to be in free fall right now, losing two straight and not looking very good doing it. I think they get back on track against the worst Defense in the NFL, but the Lions keep it close.
Vikings 31, Lions 27 (SU Win%: 67.2%, ATS Win%: 51.7%)
Eagles (+2.5) at Giants - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
An NFC game not on national TV? Is that allowed? Spread looks right here as well, as the Giants find another way to win.
Giants 22, Eagles 20 (SU Win%: 52.9%, ATS Win%: 52%)
Panthers (-3) at Rams - Sunday 4:05 pm ET
Are the real Panthers the team that smoked the Cardinals last week, or the Panthers that started 1-5? I think the Rams, coming off a bye week, win outright as a home underdog.
Rams 24, Panthers 23 (SU Win%: 51.4%, ATS Win%: 63.2%)
Saints (-3.5) at 49ers - Sunday 4:05 pm ET
The 49ers are bad. Really bad. Give the points with the Saints, who are starting to find themselves.
Saints 29, 49ers 22 (SU Win%: 71%, ATS Win%: 58.1%)
Colts (+7.5) at Packers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Colts always respond when they are absolutely up against it, but they aren't winning in Green Bay. I do think they keep it close and cover, but they'll be 3-6 heading into their bye week.
Packers 32, Colts 26 (SU Win%: 70.3%, ATS Win%: 59.1%)
Titans (+5) at Chargers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Winning Stats really like how the Titans have been playing, and we know how the Chargers love playing close games, so we'll take the Titans to win straight up in San Diego.
Titans 25, Chargers 24 (SU Win%: 51.1%, ATS Win%: 68.4%)
Broncos (PK) at Raiders - Sunday 8:30 pm ET
This should be a really good Sunday night game, as it looks to be a true toss-up. We'll take the home team to win.
Raiders 23, Broncos 22 (SU Win%: 50.7%, ATS Win%: 50%)
Bills (+6.5) at Seahawks - Monday 8:30 pm ET
At least this Monday night game has some intrigue and some new teams, rather than the same-old teams we see all the time. I like Seattle at home, but the Bills cover.
Seahawks 25, Bills 22 (SU Win%: 54.1%, ATS Win%: 67.9%)