2016 NFL Week 15: Inside the Colts Numbers - Too Little Too Late

For the second time in three weeks, the Colts looked like the best team in the NFL, this time hammering the Vikings 34-6 in Minnesota, in a game that actually wasn't even as close as the score indicates. Like the game against the Jets, it was a total team domination on Offense, Defense, and Special Teams. However, thanks to come-from-behind wins by both the Texans and Titans, the Colts Playoff chances are still on life-support despite the great performance.

It felt like the Colts could basically do whatever they wanted against the Vikings Sunday, especially on Offense, as the Vikings Defense really missed Pro Bowl Safety Harrison Smith. Andrew Luck threw it all over the yard, Frank Gore rushed for 100 yards, and the patchwork Offensive Line, which started three rookies, kept Luck off the turf the entire afternoon. You never could have convinced me the game would go the way it did, but the more the game went on, the more obvious it was the Colts were in the zone; and the more infuriating last week against the Texans became.

You'll see this in our last chart, but the games against the Jets and Vikings were top 10 overall games in the entire NFL this season (7th and 3rd). But those two chart-topping performances don't mean a whole lot when you sandwich in a complete dud between them in a much more meaningful game. I don't know what it is, but this team, going on five years now, always plays their best when the pressure is seemingly off of them and the expectations are very low. It helps explain all those incredible comebacks we've seen, how they've played after blowing very winnable games at home against the Texans the past two seasons, both of which (I believe) would have won their division. This wild inconsistency, along with lack of results the last two seasons and this we can only play well with our backs absolutely against the wall all point to needing a change at the top, but this isn't the right place for that argument. It'll come though, and the last three weeks are just the latest example of its need.

When you have such a dominant game, there are very few decisions that would have changed the outcome, and Sunday was no exception. The only thing that puzzled me was right before halftime, after the Mike Adams interception that gave the Colts the ball back with 19 seconds left at the Minnesota 36 yard line and two timeouts remaining. The Colts decided to run the ball just once, for four yards, and depend on Adam Vinatieri to nail a 50 yarder (which he did), but I would have liked to see them be a bit more aggressive with that extra timeout, as it was a bonus possession in a game they clearly had in control. You never know when you'll be in a situation where you'll need to come up with 30 yards in 19 seconds rather than 5, so it would have been good in a relatively low-risk live situation. Not a huge criticism, but just a bit puzzling.

Let's look just how good these numbers were, including those overall numbers that are so good.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 15:

Adjusted Stats for Week 15:

Some thoughts:

• Those Offensive numbers are pretty spectacular: over 90% adjusted Drive Success Rate, over 11 adjusted ANPY/A, Time of Possession per Drive over four minutes, almost eight plays per drive. It's easy to see why this was the 4th best Offensive game of the entire season.
• I wouldn't read too much into the Orange/Red Zone numbers, as the one miss came at the end of the game on a meaningless possession.
• Normally those rushing numbers, especially RB Success Rate, would be really good, but apparently Week 15 was a really good rushing week, as a success rate at 55% only ranks 12th.
• The Defense got three turnovers, forced three 3 and outs, and held them to just over four adjusted net passing yards per attempt, a really good number. Defense came to play as well.
• The Vikings got inside the Colts 35 yard line five times on Sunday, and only came away with two field goals, an outstanding, unexpected performance at keeping them off the scoreboard.
• The Colts were above average on both sides of the ball in nine of our top 10 stats, and twelve of all our stats, giving more evidence of just how well the Colts played Sunday.

Season Stats through Week 15 (Adjusted):

A couple thoughts:

• The Offense has moved into the top quarter of the NFL, based largely on very good drive stats and the their efficiency at scoring points. Still a little careless with the ball (14th in Turnovers). Clearly the Offense isn't really the issue in 2016.
• The Defense has made some nice improvements over the past six weeks or so, going from the 2nd worst defense to the 7th worst, but it's tiny steps from where they were early in the season. They still let a team led by the now-benched Brock Osweiler beat them (twice), but they aren't the leagues worst Defense (Browns).
• As an overall team they rank 13th overall, behind the Titans in the AFC South (9th), but ahead of the Texans (16th) and Jaguars (27th).

Week-to-Week Comparison

We've already talked about the last three weeks, but you can see the numbers right here, showing just how good the Jets and Vikings games were, and how they completely blew the Texans game, which would put them in the driver's seat in the AFC South. Now, they need to have either a six-game combination to win the division, or an eight-game combination to win a Wild Card spot, which total out to a 5% chance of playing beyond New Year's Day. Some may believe that the Colts playing so well late in the year means that the Front Office / Coaching Staff should get another chance, but all it tells me is this team is consistently inconsistent, and they won't leave the 7-9/8-8/9-7 purgatory that you must do to win in the NFL. Sadly I think we won't see any changes made, and it'll be another season in 2017 of Andrew Luck down the drain with nothing to show for it.