Predicting Jack Doyle’s Next Contract

The Doyler’s contract is up in the offseason, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for him. He’s having a career year, has developed into a nice security blanket for Andrew Luck and has etched a nice role for himself in this offense. In many ways, he has become an indispensable player for the Colts offense. So, what can we expect him to make in his next contract?

As mentioned earlier, Jack Doyle is having a career year, but what specifically has he done? For starters, his 57 catches and 574 yards is good for 2nd most on the team in each category. Doyle established himself as a legitimate receiver as well as being a good blocker. He can also play as an H-Back or a fullback, and can be used as a blocker in any situation. According to Pro Football Focus, Jack Doyle is ranked as the 15th best tight end in football this season, as well as the 14th best receiving tight end and the 15th best run blocking tight end.

What’s also important is that if the Colts keep Rob Chudzinski (which seems likely), it will be important to have a strong tight end group, as Chudzinski’s offense utilizes a lot of two tight end sets and his passing concepts have a lot of short and intermediate routes set up for tight ends. Allen and Doyle get a lot of targets in the red-zone and that’s not an accident as a lot of the plays utilized in the red-zone are designed for tight ends. Through 15 games, both tight ends have 9 touchdowns. Of those 9 touchdowns, 8 have come in the red-zone with the other coming on the opponent’s 21 yard line.

After his breakout year and with the importance of the tight ends in the Colts’ offense, Doyle should be a priority to re-sign.

Comparable Players

Which recently (within the past 3 seasons) signed tight ends can we compare to Doyle?

Zach Miller — Signed Contract in 2016

Brent Celek — Signed Contract in 2016

Marcedes Lewis -— Signed Contract in 2016

Brandon Myers — Signed Contract in 2014

Zach Miller’s Contract
2 Years, $5,500,000 with $3,000,000 (54.5%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $2,750,000

Brent Celek’s Contract
3 Years, $13,000,000 with $6,000,000 (46.2%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $4,333,333

Marcedes Lewis’ Contract
3 Years, $12,000,000 with $5,000,000 (41.7%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $4,000,000

Brandon Myers’ Contract (Adjusted for 2016 Salary Cap)
Original Contract: 2 Years, $4,250,000 with $2,000,000 (47%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $2,125,000
Adjusted 2016 Contract: 2 Years, $4,950,000 with $2,320,000 (47%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $2,475,000

All but Miller are the #2 tight ends in their offense and Myers and Miller signed their contracts off the best season of their careers. All four tight ends are known as good blockers, as all of them started their careers as blocking-only tight ends, like Doyle.

Prediction

3 Years, $10,800,000 with $5,130,000 (47.5%) Guaranteed
Average Per Season: $3,600,000

This contract would make him the 24th highest paid tight end in terms of average per season, and it would put him right below Marcedes Lewis and right above Benjamin Watson.

Previous Predictions:

Andrew Luck 2016

Prediction: 5 Years, $117.5M with $72.5M Guaranteed

Actual: 5 Years, $122.97M with $87M Guaranteed

TY Hilton 2015

Prediction: 5 Years, $57.5M with $23M Guaranteed

Actual: 5 Years, $65M with $28M Guaranteed