2016 NFL Week 13: Inside the Colts Numbers - Primetime Blowout

It was a complete team domination Monday night in New York (New Jersey), as the Colts took it to the Jets early and often, throttling them 41-10 in a game that easily could have been even worse than the score indicates. It moves the Colts to 6-6 and into a three-way tie for the AFC South lead with four to play. After a very shaky start to the season, the Colts played their best game of the season against a hapless Jets team.

With the starters playing, the Colts only had to punt once in three quarters, and that was thanks to a couple penalties that put them in 2nd and forever and they ran the ball twice after that. They easily could have had another touchdown just before the half when Jack Doyle fumbled through the end zone, but he did what every other player does in that situation, so I can't fault him too much. Just hold onto the ball and know your limits. The Defense was also spectacular, as you'll see in the stats below, and I don't want to short-change them because of the play of the Offense. This truly was a great game on both sides of the ball.

One of the signs of a good team is putting the hammer down against bad teams and never letting off the gas. We've unfortunately seen that several times over the past two years, and Monday night we finally saw the Colts put it to an inferior opponent. In fact, this was the first time in exactly two seasons the Colts have won a game by 20+ points, going back to their 49-27 thumping of the Redskins in Week 13 of 2014. The Colts had five such games in 2014, and we all know that team was a game away from the Super Bowl, so that theory has some merit. If we see another 20+ win before the season ends I'll believe they'll be ready to compete in the Playoffs.

Just how good were the Colts Monday night? It was one of the best games in the NFL this season.

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 13:

Adjusted Stats for Week 13:

Some thoughts:

• I don't have enough superlatives for these stats. The number of single digit rankings in these tables is extremely nice to see, especially in the Defensive column, where it was every stat except for RB Success Rate.
• It's hard to single out a Defensive stat, but I'm going to go with Three and Outs, where they got six of them on 11 total drives, something we so rarely see. I was also impressed with the 2.5 Yards per Carry rushing for the Jets, but they abandoned the run fairly early after the Colts put them in a huge hole.
• Andrew Luck had the best game of his season after taking last week off, throwing for nearly 11 Adjusted Yards per Attempt. He could basically do whatever he wanted, and only played for three quarters.
• What else happened that helped the offense immensely was field position, where they started drives, on average, almost in Jets territory (Colts 44). It's amazing how much easier things get when you only need two first downs to get into scoring range.
• Red Zone Offense took a dip thanks to the Doyle fumble and the missed 4th down on the final drive, just trying to run clock out. Right now I don't have any way to weed those out, but obviously those misses, especially the last one, really doesn't matter.
• Our top 11 stats and 13 of top 14 stats were all above average on both Offense and Defense, which is why this ranks as the fifth best game overall this season after adjusting for opponent strength. If you go on just raw numbers, it was the best game played all season by any team. That's how well they played.

Season Stats through Week 13 (Adjusted):

A couple things:

• Even with how well the Defense played Monday night, they've played 12 other times this year, and it hasn't been pretty overall. However, they did move up three spots after this week, and if you take out the stinker against the Steelers, they've played at a nice level for three games in a row.
• The Offense has stabilized right around 10th in the league overall, and there really isn't anything they do poorly. They just need to keep doing what they've done all year and they'll be ok.

Week-to-Week Comparison:

I'm not sure we could have seen two more polar opposite games over the past two weeks, but you can see the numbers right there. Another old adage: You're never as good as your best game, and never as bad as your worst game. Even if the Colts can play Defense at an average level, I believe they'll win the division. Will they be able to do that? I'd classify only four of their previous 12 games at that level, but three of them are in their last four games. Things are "trending up", but the Colts must win Sunday to have any chance at making the Playoffs. I believe they'll do just that.