This offseason, the Indianapolis Colts placed a big emphasis on the compensatory pick game, as general manager Ryan Grigson acknowledged earlier this year that the compensatory picks were going to factor into his moves.
An important deadline when it comes to compensatory picks has already passed, however, as May 12 was when any free agent moves stop factoring into the formula. That means that now is a good time to take a look at what pick(s) the Colts are projected to get. This could still change as the season goes on, but the picks will likely end up being close to what they are projected today.
Over the Cap does a great job of accurately projecting these picks, and they currently expect the Colts to get a fourth round pick to compensate for the loss of Coby Fleener to the Saints. Fleener received a 5-year, $36 million deal from New Orleans, which warrants a fourth-round pick (third rounders are the highest compensatory picks awarded).
They also do add another note of interest to the Colts, however, as it's possible (though unlikely) that they could gain another pick. The Colts' signing of quarterback Scott Tolzien (2-year, $3.5 million deal) offsets the loss of safety Dwight Lowery to the Chargers (3-year, $7.2 million deal), but Over the Cap suggests that if the Colts decide to go with Stephen Morris as their backup quarterback instead of Tolzien, they could gain a seventh round compensatory pick for the loss of Lowery.
That's unlikely to happen, as it is expected that Tolzien will end up being the backup to Andrew Luck. So I wouldn't count on them adding that additional seventh round pick, but it does sound like there's the possibility if they were to cut Tolzien in favor of Morris. Ultimately, though, it's likely that the Colts will wind up with an additional fourth round pick to compensate for the loss of Coby Fleener in next year's draft.