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2016 NFL Playoff Odds Week 3 - Better Than History Says

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. The Colts sit at 0-2 for a third straight year, and you'll see the percentages of 0-2 teams that have made the Playoffs historically. But where do the Colts sit in their situation this year?

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

It's still very early in the 2016 season, but that doesn't stop every media outlet from spouting off how often 0-2 teams make the Playoffs (it's 12%). I can think of numerous factors that make that generalized number ridiculous, but statistically it is correct. However, we strive to give you a much better sense of where the Colts, and everyone else sits after two games. Enter the Winning Stats.

To get our predictions, we run each season 50,000 times, see how often each team wins the division, makes the Playoffs, wins the conference, and wins the Super Bowl. Obviously every team has a different schedule, so this takes that into account, and paints a nice picture of what the Playoffs will look like, even if we've only played two weeks.

Here's how the AFC South looks after the first two weeks of the season:

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 9.8 12.7% 15.8% 18.9% 25.2% 1.6% 2.4% 72.6% 28.5% 4.0% 76.6%
Colts 7.0 0.8% 1.7% 3.8% 8.6% 1.6% 3.2% 14.8% 2.5% 4.8% 19.7%
Titans 6.7 0.4% 1.0% 2.4% 6.2% 1.3% 2.5% 10.1% 1.5% 3.7% 13.9%
Jaguars 5.0 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 2.4% 0.2% 0.7% 3.1%

With the Texans at 2-0 and only one other win among the other three teams, it makes sense that the Texans are the heavy favorite to win the division, almost at 75%, while the Colts are still the second most likely team to win the division at 15%, even though they sit a game behind the Titans at the moment. In total the Colts make the Playoffs nearly 20% of the time, better than the historic 12% of 0-2 teams. It's not nearly as high as the 36% the Colts had a year ago after their 0-2 start. You can also see here the Colts, on average, finish the season 7-9, so they've lost a full game from their preseason expectation (and in all honesty, they should have won one of their first two games). They'll need some work to get back to .500 this year.

Several future Colts opponents lead their divisions at the moment, including the Steelers, Jets and Vikings, although they took a big hit today losing both Adrian Peterson and LT Matt Kalil. The Panthers have the best chance of making the Playoffs at 84%, mostly because they win their division by three games on average.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Steelers 56.0% 23.7% 63.6% 36.7% 21.0% 10.3%
Jets 47.0% 12.0% 41.0% 22.1% 12.0% 5.6%
Bengals 24.4% 34.5% 40.7% 21.9% 11.9% 5.6%
Texans 72.6% 4.0% 51.9% 24.4% 11.0% 4.5%
Broncos 40.3% 19.9% 43.1% 21.2% 10.3% 4.4%
Chiefs 31.6% 19.6% 35.5% 18.8% 9.5% 4.3%
Patriots 44.4% 12.1% 36.6% 17.7% 8.2% 3.4%
Chargers 18.3% 18.4% 22.7% 10.6% 4.9% 2.0%
Ravens 19.2% 28.6% 28.5% 12.0% 5.2% 1.9%
Raiders 9.8% 11.1% 11.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8%
Colts 14.8% 4.8% 10.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Bills 7.4% 4.6% 6.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Titans 10.1% 3.7% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Dolphins 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Jaguars 2.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Browns 0.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

In the AFC, the Steelers are the class of the conference so far in 2016, and they're just a game away from getting one of the top RBs in the NFL back in Le'Veon Bell. In total the AFC has just a 45% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so they'd be ~ 2 point underdog (in general). You see where the Colts sit, and I can't really argue too much with that number, and their relative ranking. They win the Super Bowl 357 times out of the 50,000, so it isn't impossible, but it's a long shot, and they're ahead of the Bills, Titans, Dolphins, and Browns (who win Super Bowl 9 times). Overall the Seahawks and Cardinals lead the way at 15% and 14% respectively, despite their 1-1 record, and next is the Panthers at 13%, also at 1-1. Along with the Steelers, they are the only four teams better than a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl, meaning it's pretty wide open at this point.