Week 2 was a pretty rough one, as four of our top five games Against the Spread lost, and two of those were in agonizing fashion. The Colts just had to not give up another turnover->touchdown, which they did, and the Bengals were driving when they ruled a fumble on the field, certainly looked like video evidence showed his knee had been down, but were stopped in their tracks, losing our bets. It's time to start climbing back up.
This week there are six games that are within one point straight up, meaning we could have a huge swing in terms of picking winners. All of those games we'll be taking the road team Against the Spread, as the Winning Stats don't put quite the premium on home field as others do. You'll also see a couple games (Browns and Bears) with new starting QBs that just don't quite work with our numbers, so use at your own risk. These will clean up as we get more data in the system for 2016.
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1066-969-39 (52.3%) ATS, 1318-758-4 (63.5%) SU
2016 Record: 14-18 ATS (-$150.72), 11-5 SU
Week 2 Record: 7-9 ATS (-$184.39), 10-6 SU
I don't care who is under center: I'm taking the Patriots getting points at home no matter the situation. I think they win tonight as well, moving to 3-0 without Tom Brady. Just as we all expected.
Patriots 21, Texans 20 (SU Win%: 53.1%, ATS Win%: 53.8%)
This game is pretty close to the Vegas line, as the Cardinals travel east to take on a struggling Bills team in Buffalo. This will be the first game with a new Offensive Coordinator in Buffalo, so maybe we'll see a difference, but I doubt it against one of the best teams in the NFL.
Cardinals 29, Bills 23 (SU Win%: 65.5%, ATS Win%: 53.3%)
No Bridgewater, no Peterson, and no Kalil for the Vikings, but that Defense is still really, really good. They'll hang against a Panthers team that is susceptible to letting lesser teams hang around with them.
Panthers 24, Vikings 20 (SU Win%: 60.1%, ATS Win%: 61.6%)
Broncos (+3.5) at Bengals - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
This is a really tough spot for the Broncos, playing their first road game against a really good Bengals team, trying to come back from losing to division rival Steelers team last week.
Bengals 22, Broncos 20 (SU Win%: 56.6%, ATS Win%: 59.8%)
The Lions are destined to play games that come down to the final snap all season, so I'll take the touchdown worth of points in a place they won at a year ago, against a team that people think is much better than they actually are at the moment.
Lions 26, Packers 25 (SU Win%: 52.3%, ATS Win%: 78.1%)
The Jaguars got a lot of preseason hype, but they laid a giant egg last week in San Diego. The Ravens find ways to win games, even when they are outmatched, and that's what will happen here.
Ravens 27, Jaguars 21 (SU Win%: 65.9%, ATS Win%: 72.3%)
Browns (+9.5) at Dolphins - Sunday 1:00 pm ET
I've factored in Quarterback changes into my formula now, but starting three in three weeks, including a rookie mid-round draft pick, is hard to project. All I know is that the Browns played decently last week, and our system really does not like the Dolphins. My head says this score doesn't work at all, but wanted to tell you what it was saying anyways.
Browns 25, Dolphins 24 (SU Win%: 52.6%, ATS Win%: 68.9%)
"Desperation is a stinky cologne", and the Redskins will be reeking of it Sunday against a Giants team that, like the Lions will be playing close games all season long. I'll take the points in a tight game, and the Redskins finding a way to avoid 0-3.
Redskins 28, Giants 27 (SU Win%: 50.4%, ATS Win%: 67.3%)
The Titans favored? Really? I'll steal the point and a half here and take the Raiders.
Raiders 25, Titans 22 (SU Win%: 60.2%, ATS Win%: 66.8%)
The real Seattle has to show up eventually, and I think they do here against the 49ers. Seahawks big.
Seahawks 26, 49ers 16 (SU Win%: 76.2%, ATS Win%: 54.9%)
The Rams will finally score a touchdown this season in Tampa Bay, who had all their weaknesses exposed last week by the Cardinals. Rams with a late field goal to win.
Rams 23, Buccaneers 22 (SU Win%: 54.6%, ATS Win%: 71.4%)
Chargers (+3) at Colts - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Fast starts vs. slow starts. Epic comeback falls short again for the Colts against a team they just never can seem to beat.
Chargers 26, Colts 25 (SU Win%: 51.4%, ATS Win%: 60.4%)
Two pretty good, under the radar teams play Sunday afternoon, and I'm taking the team with the better Defense to win on a late score.
Jets 22, Chiefs 21 (SU Win%: 51.8%, ATS Win%: 60.4%)
Steelers (-3.5) at Eagles - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Steelers have looked like the best team in the NFL after two weeks, and that'll continue when they travel across the state to take on the Eagles. The Eagles finally step up to a real NFL opponent this week, so we'll see how rookie QB Carson Wentz really is progressing.
Steelers 25, Eagles 20 (SU Win%: 64.1%, ATS Win%: 54.7%)
Bears (+7.5) at Cowboys - Sunday 8:25 pm ET
This line has moved 10.5 points since last week due to the injury to Jay Cutler, and how these teams played last week. That's a giant move that I'm going to take advantage of. I'll take the boatload of points here on Sunday night.
Bears 25, Cowboys 24 (SU Win%: 52.5%, ATS Win%: 57.0%)
High scoring game that'll be fun to watch Monday. Close game so we'll take the points, but take the home team to win.
Saints 30, Falcons 29 (SU Win%: 51.1%, ATS Win%: 60.4%)