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2016 NFL Playoff Odds Week 3 - Back on Track

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The Winning Stats simulate 50,000 seasons to find out the odds of every team not only winning the Super Bowl, but winning their division, getting a Wild Card, or advancing throughout the Playoffs. After playing well for the first time in 2016, and getting a much-needed win, the Colts are now back on track to making the Playoffs, but are still no means a shoe-in.

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The clear-as-mud Playoff picture got another week's worth of data, but in some cases made us even more confused than before. This was especially true for the Steelers, who came into the Week as the #2 team in our Power Rankings, but left at #12, thanks to a horrific performance in Philadelphia. The same could also be said about the AFC South.

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Texans 8.7 4.3% 7.4% 13.3% 28.8% 1.8% 2.9% 53.8% 11.8% 4.7% 58.5%
Colts 8.0 1.9% 4.4% 9.4% 20.0% 2.3% 3.9% 35.6% 6.3% 6.1% 41.8%
Titans 6.0 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 5.7% 0.4% 0.9% 7.6% 0.5% 1.3% 8.9%
Jaguars 4.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.4% 3.3%

The Colts played much better than they had the first two weeks, and the Texans were bludgeoned on Thursday night in New England, which tightened the divisional race right back up to where it was at the start of the season. They now sit around 42% to make the Playoffs, and 36% to win the AFC South, both up significantly from last week. The Texans are still the class of the division, but the loss of J.J. Watt could be a significant blow to the #1 Defense in the NFL. Still lots of time left, but the Colts aren't in a position to just tank the rest of the season.

Around the NFL, the three teams that are 80+% of making the Playoffs are the Patriots (of course), Seahawks, and Vikings, which makes a lot of sense when you consider how well they've played this season despite all the injuries. The Eagles are the next highest at 78%, and the Chiefs actually have a better chance of winning the AFC West than the 3-0 Broncos, although it's very tight (10.290 Wins vs. 10.287). The other undefeated team, the Ravens, have just a 61% chance of making it, thanks in large part to their division being so tough, and them feasting on three teams with a combined one victory, and only winning by a total of 13 points.

Complete Playoff Odds for Every Team

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Chiefs 44.0% 31.8% 59.7% 36.3% 21.9% 11.3%
Patriots 73.9% 8.6% 67.2% 36.9% 19.2% 9.2%
Broncos 38.8% 33.7% 53.6% 27.3% 14.0% 6.1%
Bengals 26.8% 15.5% 28.2% 14.6% 7.4% 3.3%
Ravens 43.7% 17.7% 40.9% 18.1% 7.6% 2.9%
Texans 53.8% 4.7% 33.0% 14.5% 6.4% 2.6%
Steelers 28.7% 15.9% 28.0% 12.9% 5.9% 2.4%
Colts 35.6% 6.1% 23.4% 10.6% 4.7% 1.9%
Raiders 10.9% 22.6% 20.4% 9.2% 4.3% 1.8%
Jets 13.7% 9.9% 13.7% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2%
Chargers 6.3% 16.7% 13.1% 6.1% 2.8% 1.1%
Bills 9.6% 9.6% 10.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8%
Dolphins 2.8% 4.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Titans 7.6% 1.3% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Browns 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jaguars 3.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

The Winning Stats are back to liking the Chiefs in the AFC, but the Patriots and Broncos are following close behind. The Colts Super Bowl chances more than doubled this week, so if they can pull that off each week they'll be in good shape, right? I like how these numbers are starting to level off, and it's starting to look better and better with more data.

After their dominant performance against the 49ers Sunday, the Seahawks have jumped back to being our Super Bowl favorite at 17%, followed by the Chiefs and Patriots. Even though the Cardinals have just a 61% chance of making the Playoffs (thanks to Seattle being in-division), they have the 2nd best odds of winning the Super Bowl in the NFC.