I've been doing a write-up on picks now for about five years, and I've had some good weeks over the years getting 11 or even 12 games right Against the Spread on a given week. But those weeks weren't quite what we saw last week.
I started putting in a probability of covering the spread this season, which lets you see just how confident the pick is, and last week it hit the most confident 9 games, something I've not see before. It was one of those weeks where everything just fell perfectly into place for a whole lot of picks, and we made a really nice chunk of change. I hope some of you ignored our awful Week 2 to hammer Week 3, as we're back on the plus side after three weeks.
Lifetime Record (since 2008): 1076-974-40 (52.4%) ATS, 1324-768-4 (63.3%) SU
2016 Record: 24-23-1 (51.0%) ATS (+92.30), 27-21 (56.3%) SU
Week 3 Record: 10-5-1 ATS (+$243.01), 6-10 SU
A couple of 1-2 teams that couldn't be further apart in terms of their play this season. Andy Dalton always seems to have issues in National TV games, so the Dolphins could make this close-ish. Still think the Bengals win comfortably, but Dolphins cover the spread.
Bengals 26, Dolphins 20 (SU Win%: 72.3%, ATS Win%: 55.7%)
Full write-up on Friday, but I think the Colts win after a fight from the Jaguars.
Colts 28, Jaguars 23 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 64.5%)
The Panthers have lost more games this year in three weeks than they did in 16 last year, but they'll be avenging their lone loss of 2015. I think they light up the Falcon Defense, and they'll be able to slow down the rushing duo in Atlanta who ran roughshod over the Saints.
Panthers 28, Falcons 22 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 60.6%)
The Ravens have played three teams with a combined one win, and the Raiders have more than that by themselves. Close game (like most Ravens games), and I'll take the road team by a point, covering by several.
Raiders 22, Ravens 21 (SU Win%: 52.2%, ATS Win%: 64.3%)
The Lions go on the road in their division once again this week, but this time against the lowly Bears, who are ranked dead last in a lot of power rankings. If the Lions can start better than last week, they'll have no problem covering this weekend.
Lions 31, Bears 25 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 60.6%)
Spread looks dead on here, as the Texans get a nice match-up in their first game without J.J. Watt. A good opportunity for their league-worst Offense on track as well.
Texans 21, Titans 15 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 50.9%)
You can't bet this line yet because of the Patriots QB situation, but they've got one more week without Tom Brady, and they've owned the Bills forever. Spread seem right on, so no bets on this one either.
Patriots 29, Bills 24 (SU Win%: 67.3%, ATS Win%: 51.7%)
Seahawks got on track last week, thumping the 49ers at home, while the Jets kept throwing interceptions to the Chiefs. The health of Russell Wilson is still a question mark, but I think they take care of business a long way from home.
Seahawks 24, Jets 18 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 64.5%)
The Browns aren't quite the dumpster fire people have made them out to be, and the Redskins aren't good enough to be touchdown favorites against anyone. Big on the Browns against the spread this week.
Redskins 27, Browns 24 (SU Win%: 54.5%, ATS Win%: 73.6%)
A surprise 3-0, the Broncos travel to Tampa, who gave up nearly 40 points to the Rams last week, a team that didn't score a touchdown their first two weeks. I think the Denver Defense will give the Bucs Offense fits all afternoon.
Broncos 26, Buccaneers 21 (SU Win%: 68.9%, ATS Win%: 60.6%)
Rams (+8) at Cardinals - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
Don't let the results of last week sway you in this game: Cardinals are still a superior team, and the line looks pretty spot-on here. Cardinals by a touchdown.
Cardinals 24, Rams 17 (SU Win%: 78.1%, ATS Win%: 51.1%)
Saints (+4) at Chargers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Chargers let pretty much everyone hang around, and while the Saints can't seem to stop anybody, the Chargers couldn't move the ball against the Colts Defense last week, who aren't all that much better than the Saints. Chargers by a field goal, so Saints cover.
Chargers 30, Saints 27 (SU Win%: 64.3%, ATS Win%: 51.5%)
Cowboys (-2.5) at 49ers - Sunday 4:25 pm ET
The Cowboys looked good Sunday night against a horrible Bears team, but I'm not going to jump completely in with them on the road, even against a Blaine Gabbert-led team. Niners close.
49ers 23, Cowboys 22 (SU Win%: 52.5%, ATS Win%: 57.0%)
Chiefs (+5.5) at Steelers - Sunday 8:25 pm ET
The return of Le'Veon Bell, but the Steelers played so awful last week, and the Chiefs played so well, this line moved in the Winning Stats 5 points! Think Chiefs win in Pittsburgh, but tough to tell exactly the impact of Bell for the Steelers.
Chiefs 23, Steelers 19 (SU Win%: 67.3%, ATS Win%: 86.2%)
Vikings look to go 4-0 in their second home primetime game. Their Defense is nasty, and the Giants are prone to having issues this season. Vikings win comfortably.
Vikings 27, Giants 21 (SU Win%: 72.3%, ATS Win%: 55.1%)