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Colts In-camp Fantasy Stock Report

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts almost always have a few solid fantasy football options on their roster, year in and year out. This season is no different, but a national panic about quarterback Andrew Luck’s availability to start the season is clearly affecting the way that fantasy owners view the Colts’ roster.

Training camp is a critical checkpoint in players’ fantasy stock. Most league owners try to get drafts going as close to the end of training camp as possible to account for injuries and other storylines.

We’ll look at where Colts players’ fantasy stock currently stands as opposed to when the offseason program began this spring. I’ll then tell you whether to buy or sell their opinion.

Since they track ADP trends, I use Fantasy Football Calculator to track changes in ADP.

Andrew Luck

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 4:01 | 7:01

Jake’s Verdict — SELL

You can thank CBS’ Jason La Canfora and ESPN’s Adam Schefter for helping create a panic about Luck’s Week 1 availability. Although Colts general manager Chris Ballard has already stated on two occasions that Luck will be activated from the Physically Unable to Perform List before the season starts, reports about Luck potentially starting the season on PUP, which would sit him out at least the first six weeks, have still come out.

Don’t buy into it. Anyone who you ask around the Colts or who reports on them on a regular basis will tell you that they think Luck will be activated from PUP before Week 1. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Luck will play Week 1, but he likely will not still be on PUP at that point. When Luck returns, he will need to shake some rust off, but he is a six-year pro. He knows how to get himself ready.

Frank Gore

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 6:08 | 7:03

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

I no longer think that Gore should be drafted as a top-two running back for fantasy rosters, so his mid-round value is appropriate. I am not sure why his value dipped in June and then made a comeback, but it stayed pretty steadily in the seventh round.

Although Gore runs behind a very good run-blocking offensive line, you would have to imagine that he is going to lose even more snaps this year to Robert Turbin and Marlon Mack — both of whom have been impressive so far in camp. Both players offer more explosion, and Turbin has all but taken over as the short-yardage and goal line back.

Robert Turbin

OTA ADP | Current ADP — Undrafted

Jake’s Verdict — SELL

The lack of respect this offseason for Turbin has grated on my nerves, but his respect will have to wait until the season starts. He should be a popular waiver wire addition early in the year once people realize that he is the Colts’ RB2 and not Mack.

Turbin has received a ton of looks with the ones and twos in camp and has looked great. His ability to pass protect and pick up the tough yards will make him a commodity in all situations that the offense will face. If you find yourself light on running backs near the end of your draft, Turbin is a safe pickup and is almost sure to be available.

Marlon Mack

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 12:08 | 12:05

Jake’s Verdict — SELL

Now, I don’t want it to sound like I’m bashing Mack, but I just don’t think he is the way to go in the Colts’ backfield in 2017. Unless you are in a dynasty draft and are looking beyond 2017. In 2017, it makes sense for Mack’s role to be primarily on third downs with five or more yards to go. He can catch, and he is fast. Plus, he has held his own in pass protection in camp, which is arguably the biggest factor for a coach being confident in putting a rookie RB on the field.

While I think it’s possible that Mack becomes a good waiver pickup later in the year, by drafting him, you will miss on other good sleepers late like Turbin, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Zay Jones, WR Tyler Lockett or WR Kenny Golladay.

TY Hilton

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 2:07 | 2:11

Jake’s Verdict — SELL

This is an easy correlation between the concern about Luck’s availability and Hilton’s ADP. The drop seems to take place right as the Colts began camp and Luck was placed on the camp PUP list. If Luck were to miss any big chunk of time, then sure. That will definitely affect Hilton’s fantasy value. However, since there should be no real concern yet, Hilton should still be ranked among the top couple tiers of fantasy receivers (currently my overall WR8). He led the league in receiving yards in 2016, after all.

Donte Moncrief

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 6:07 | 7:09

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

I understand Moncrief’s drop in ADP for two reasons. First, like Hilton, Moncrief’s drop occurs when Luck is placed on the camp PUP list. Next, Moncrief — who missed the middle of 2016 with a broken shoulder blade — suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder last week. He is going to start being known as a player who can’t stay healthy, especially if his injuries keep happening to the same areas of the body.

Now, taking Luck’s status and Moncrief’s ailments out of the equation, he has had a tremendous 2017. From OTA’s into the first week of camp, he has looked determined to be a big-time player for the Colts. Assuming that Moncrief will keep that rolling when he returns from the shoulder sprain (should be this week), he has the potential to take the next step in his development and be a really good fantasy player.

Chester Rogers

OTA ADP | Current ADP — Undrafted

Jake’s Verdict — SELL

This is a ‘SELL’ in the sense that many people outside of the Colts fanbase don’t know who Rogers is.

What people don’t know is that Rogers appears to have the Colts’ WR3 spot locked down as much as he can right now. He has been arguably the most impressive WR in camp, beating any and all defensive backs that he lines up against. While it’s debatable whether a team’s third receiver should be drafted, I believe that Rogers has real fantasy value in 2017. It may not be much, but he will have some games where he puts up respectable points.

You can take him as a sleeper late in your drafts. If either Hilton or Moncrief has to sit out at some point this season, people will be rushing to try and pick up Rogers.

Jack Doyle

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 13:08 | 12:03

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

If you’re looking for Doyle to put up elite TE fantasy stats like Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen, that’s not going to happen. However, if you’re looking for a TE just to get you something as a starter each and every week, Doyle’s your guy. I love his late-round value, especially since it means you can focus on RB’s and WR’s early and not have to worry about a TE until the “finalizing my roster” stages.

Whether it’s Luck or Scott Tolzien at QB for the Colts in Week 1, the TE position will always be a security blanket for the QB. Doyle averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game in 2016 (ESPN PPR) and that was with Dwayne Allen sharing starting duties. Doyle is the Colts’ starter now, so draft him with confidence.

Erik Swoope

OTA ADP | Current ADP — Undrafted

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

Swoope is a pretty good sleeper pick this year, but I completely understand him having an undrafted ADP. Many people only carry one, sometimes two TE on their rosters. With Swoope not being ranked in the top 20, there is no reason to draft him unless you think he will blow up.

One reason people could think that Swoope will have a big season is that he is stepping into the Colts’ TE2 spot, and the Colts have involved two TE in their offense for several years now. Swoope is a downfield threat, which is always a valuable asset for tight ends running down the seam. I won’t be drafting Swoope this year, but I do expect him to have some good games.

Adam Vinatieri

OTA ADP | Current ADP — 14:02 | 14:09

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

It’s weird how Vinatieri’s ADP seems to change week to week, but I BUY taking him in the 14th round. The Colts offense will struggle if Luck misses any time, but with him back under center, Vinatieri’s scoring opportunities will certainly rise. He is my K5 until Father Time finally catches up with him.

Colts DST

OTA ADP | Current ADP — Undrafted

Jake’s Verdict — BUY

I fully expect the Colts defense to be an improved unit in 2017, but that doesn’t mean that you should draft them. Most fantasy owners only keep one DST at a time, so that leaves Indianapolis on the outside looking in.

So far in camp, the defense has looked much better. A big chunk of that is because Tolzien is the starting QB with Luck out, but regardless, there are signs that the unit will be better. OLB John Simon and DL Al Woods and Johnathan Hankins have been getting into the backfield consistently, and CB Vontae Davis looks like he’s rebounded from his 2016 slump. If rookie DB’s Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson can develop into capable starters during the season, their ball skills will create more takeaways opportunities.