Every week, I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
While the outcome was not good, I saw a lot that I Iiked in Sunday’s offensive performance. The Colts put up 34 points and a 73% DSR, both of which are respectable numbers.
There were three, 3 & outs which is about normal for most teams but another 4 drives were killed by turnovers. When the offense managed to hold on to the ball, they were easily moving down the field.
Other than turnovers, there really aren’t any bad numbers here. The 2.6 points per drive ranks 13th this week while the 6.5 yards per play is similar to what the Patriots put up last week against the Colts defense.
One of every three plays resulted in a first down. And on third downs, an average of 6 yards to go was the 8th best mark of any team this week. Given such short yardage on third down, I would like to see the conversion rate a bit higher but 42% is still good.
Other than interceptions, 2 of which are on the receivers, there isn’t any bad news here.
Yards after catch was good and I like the average depth of target of 8.7 yards, which in my opinion is right about the sweet spot for this offense (given our receiving group). The completion rate was low, but the blame for that falls squarely on dropped passes.
In an alternate reality, where those drops don’t occur, there are 6 more completions for 78 yards, 2 fewer interceptions and 1 more TD. That is the difference between a passer rating of 77.8 or 124.1. It is the difference between an excellent ANY/A of 10.1 or a poor 5.7. It is the difference between a win and a loss.
Holy crap, the run game was actually good.
30% of all carries resulted in a first down, although the Colts went 0 for 2 on third downs. Over half of all rushes were “successful” (first down, TD or chunk yardage) with 3 explosive runs greater than 10 yards.
A weighted success rate of 45% is 4th best this week and by far the best mark the Colts have put up all season.
Outside of the turnovers, the offense was actually very good this week, but other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
While the last 3 weeks has seen 3 losses, I am far more encouraged by the Colts efforts than I was the first 3 weeks. The numbers are trending in the right direction and it is really just mental errors from keeping this offense from being good.