Every week, I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
The problem with talking about stats from a Colts blowout win is that you already know the story. There is no real insight to add.
It’s a good problem to have.
While an 86.7% Drive Success Rate isn’t the highest mark the Colts have put up this year, it is close, only slightly less than the 90.3% against Oakland 3 weeks ago. It is, however, the first game where the offense has not had a 3 & out drive, which is harder than it sounds. Of the 322 offensive games played in 2018 (161 games x 2 offenses), that has only happened 12 other times.
Two turnovers and a great kick return gave Indianapolis advantageous field position on three drives and they capitalized on it with 17 points. And even though the six other drives pinned the Colts to the 14 yard line on average, the offense churned out another 21 points.
For about the 4th week in a row, there just isn’t anything but good news stat-wise for the Colts offense. Drew Brees continued his likely MVP year and so Andrew Luck and the Colts could only muster the second best DSR and Adjusted Points Per Drive.
Third down conversions dipped to 50%, but that is still very good, and the Colts continue to lead the league on the season (52%). But since 5.3 yards to gain on third down is lower than previous weeks then maybe the offense should have done better? Oh, darn.
For the 5th game in a row, the offensive line did not yield a sack extending Luck’s streak to 214 sack-free attempts. If the O-line can keep that up for a mere 13 games more, Luck might break Dan Marino’s record of 759.
The good marks keep going. The Colts put up the 2nd best Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt for the week (11.1), almost 47% of passes resulted in first downs (or TDs), and 9.2 Yards per Attempt is the 2nd best mark of the season for the Colts.
As impressive as those passing numbers are, they were diluted a bit by Jacoby Brissett. Before taking a well earned 4th quarter respite, Luck put up 10.2 YPA and a 12.3 ANY/A, both of which were the 2nd best marks of his career.
Yards after Catch weren’t great, but it has been trending up since week 3’s miserable low of 3.1 to an almost respectable 5.2. It would be really nice if that was higher but as long as YPA stays high (via air yards and completion rate), then I’m a happy guy.
While not nearly as flashy as week 7 & 8’s 200+ yard performances, the run game was very good this week, earning the top spot in weighted rushing success rate. How is that possible with only 102 yards you say? Well, let me school ya.
3 of the 28 carries were kneel downs. 2 of them were touchdowns while another 6 were first down conversions. 8 more runs were on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 6.4 ypc making the conversions that much easier. Add it all up and you get 16 of 25 runs (64%) that successfully did what you wanted them to do.
Even though teams like Baltimore and Seattle put up much more rushing yardage, the Colts run game was much more efficient in measures that lead to wins. On the year, the Colts are 5th in wRSR and it’s no coincidence that Luck’s passing has improved because of it.
The three prior games had shown what this team can be offensively and they didn’t let up this past week either. Outside of New Orleans, the Colts have had the best offense in the league over a 4 game stretch (and yes, I saw the Monday night game).
If they could finish the year at the current production level, then I don’t see the Colts losing another regular season game. And that would mean playoffs.