Every week, I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Well, the Colt’s offense did not cover the 7.5 point spread but they certainly did put up enough points to win. And so while not nearly as good as the previous 3 weeks, the offense was still pretty good.
Outside of the turnovers, the Colts moved the ball well with an overall 74.3% Drive Success Rate. That’s not to ignore the turnovers as they still count, but anytime a team puts up 26 first downs with 7.0 yards per play, that will translate to points.
The jump-off-the-page stat here is the drop in third down conversions. The Colts entered the game with a league leading 52% 3DC but against the Dolphins, even with an advantageous 5.8 average yards to gain, they only managed a 33% 3DC, which ranks 22nd for the week.
Fortunately, the Colts converted 1st and 2nd downs at an elevated rate so the more important overall conversion rate was still high (35%).
The only thing more ridiculous than Luck’s 81% completion rate is that 3 other QBs actually had a higher number (technically, Jacoby Brissett also had a 100% completion rate but I’m not counting that).
Air Yards is about the same as the previous 2 weeks, but Indy receivers posted 6.6 Yards After the Catch, which was by far their best effort of the season. Those numbers directly tie to the 6 explosive passing plays for 161 yards with 4 of those being T.Y. Hilton connections for 105 yards. All of that combines into an impressive 9.1 YPA (9.3 excluding Brissett’s pass).
However, because of the 2 picks, Andrew Luck’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was only mediocre (8.0) causing the “meh” ranking this week. But outside of those picks, the passing game was lights out.
The run game didn’t fare as well. Although 4.5 Yards Per Carry is not bad and Mack was playing well before leaving the game with a concussion (85 yds, 5.6 ypc), those yards didn’t translate to first downs, which is what matters (and why ypc is a crap stat).
An actual Rush Success Rate of 42% and a weighted RSR of 33% places the effort in the bottom third of the league.
CONCLUSIONS & NEXT MATCH-UP
The Colts really only had 1 bad drive in the second half and outside of the turnovers looked competent in the first half. However, while the overall effort was statistically good, it definitely leaves a bothersome aftertaste.
Fixing the mental errors will be a must for this team to make the playoffs and that starts in week 13 against the Jaguars. Since the Jags will have a new OC, a new QB and will probably be missing their starting running back, comparing offensive stats seems moot. But I’ll do it anyway.
On the season, the Jag’s DSR of 66.7% ranks 27th and they are putting up less than 18 points per game. Their pass game has relied on shorter passes with the 31st shortest Air Yards per attempt but that is made up for by having the 7th best YAC in the league. In week 10, the Jags hung 9.9 YAC on the Colts and if that repeats it will be a lot closer of a game than expected.
Jacksonville has been slightly more successful in the run game, ranking 19th in wRSR. However, they are likely losing Fournette (3.5 ypc, 30.8% wRSR) and Bortles who is their 3rd leading rusher. T.J. Yeldon has shown to be efficient (4.1 ypc, 31.0% wRSR) but he can only take up so much slack.