Indianapolis Colts by the Numbers: Week 16 Offensive Stats

By T. Troy Russell@TTroyRussell Dec 27, 2018, 10:00am EST

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

Every week, I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

I have heard the Colts offensive performance against the Giants described as a tale of two halves. After reviewing the numbers, I would say it was more a tale of a very good offense that had a very bad first quarter.

In the first two drives, the Colts managed only 6 yards of net offense and a promising third drive effort was killed by a mind-boggling throw-away pick from Andrew Luck. After that, though, the Colts offense dominated.

The Colts notched 27 first downs and an impressive 84.4% Drive Success Rate, but almost all of that success came after the first quarter. Here is a breakdown of some stats by drives started in the first quarter vs. the rest of the game:

1st Qtr Comparison

Drive Start	1st downs (per drive)	Yards (per drive)	Points (per drive)	DSR	Passer Rating	Rushing Success
Drive Start	1st downs (per drive)	Yards (per drive)	Points (per drive)	DSR	Passer Rating	Rushing Success
Qtr 1	1	18	-	50.0%	34.2	25.0%
Qtr 2 - 4	4	58.7	4.7	92.3%	110.8	54.5%

TEAM TOTALS

Other than the turnover, there is not one bad number up there. Well, I guess we lost Time of Possession . . . so sad.

The initial horrible offense (coupled with a horrible defense) caused a pass heavy game script for Indy. Ideally, you don’t want to pass on 75% of your plays.

PASSING

Luck was very good last Sunday but his head-scratching interception reduced his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt to a mediocre 16th place.

He had a good completion rate with receptions averaging 7.6 yards through the air, which was 6th longest on the week. But Yards after the Catch were a miserable 3.9, which limited the total Yards per Attempt to just 7.6.

However, the most important stat is the almost 40% of passes that resulted in a first down (6th best). If your QB can consistently move the chains with his arm (and Luck does) then Cmp%, YAC and YPA aren’t important.

RUSHING

Game script limited the run game, which is too bad because the Colts rushers were delivering what mattered. While 3.3 Yards per Carry isn’t that thrilling, it can be a deceiving stat, which is why I always look at how successful the runs were.

Marlon Mack only accumulated 34 yards but in that total is a TD, 2 first downs and an 11 yard gain on 1st and 15. That’s successful running and it’s why the Colts cracked the top 5 in weighted Rush Success Rate.

CONCLUSIONS & NEXT MATCH-UP

The offense stumbled early, but by the third drive, it was easy to see they were back in sync and put forth a great overall performance.

Next up is the Titans, who these Colts hung 38 points on last time around. However, over the past 5 weeks, the Titans defense has been putting up some of the best numbers in the league, limiting opponents to 16.2 points per game and a 2nd best 64% Opposing DSR.

Their usually “just average” passing defense has recently stonewalled QBs to a ridiculously low 2.4 ANY/A (3rd lowest). Of course, none of that adjusts for opponent and the Jets, Jaguars, Giants and Redskins haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire at the QB position.

Against the run, the Titans rank 11th by DVOA on the season, which is similar to my 9th place ranking by wRSR and much higher than the 18th place effort they have put up the last 5 games. Against the Giants, game script forced the Colts to be one-dimensional. But if we can have early success with the run game against the Titans, then we should be able to move the ball.

The Colts opened as 1 point underdogs.