Stampede Blue Stats and Stats I Hate

Indianapolis Colts by the Numbers: Week 13 Offensive Stats

By T. Troy Russell@TTroyRussell Dec 5, 2018, 10:00am EST

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NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Every week, I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

That was . . . I mean it was . . . it was just . . .

There are no words.

Even when things went right they went wrong. There were really only 2 drives that had any promise, of which, the first was a turnover on downs at the 1 and the clock ran out on the other. The rest of the drives were just garbage. Sure there was a 45 yard drive that ended on another failed 4th & 1, but the other 8 drives totaled a whopping 89 yards of offense.

Believe it or not, a 63% Drive Success Rate is not the worst number the Colts have had this season. In week 3, against the Eagles, the Colts put forth a 58% DSR effort that had only 14 first downs. In that contest, generous field position gifted by the defense led to 16 points.

Against Jacksonville, however, the Colts weren’t that fortunate. While they managed more first downs, they also turned the ball over 3 times in Jacksonville territory with 0 points as a result.

TEAM TOTALS

Pick a stat, any stat. Okay don’t tell me, let me guess. The stat you picked was . . . horrible.

The Colts came into the game leading the league in third down conversions at 51% but could only manage 28% this week and that does not include going 0 for 3 on fourth. Only 22% of scrimmage plays resulted in first downs, which is 28th for the week.

An interception, fumble and 2 turnovers on downs were literal drive killers and figurative game killers.

PASSING

The only somewhat acceptable passing stat is the 63.5% completion rate. But that came at a cost of yards as they were short passes (3.3 air yards) and the receivers couldn’t muster many yards after the catch (4.2). There was only 1 explosive passing play . . . ONE!

The only thing more pitiful than Andrew Luck’s 4.8 Yards per Attempt is his 3.3 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

RUSHING

Late game script limited the rush attempts for the Colts and thankfully so. As I watched the game, I thought the rushing game was bad. I was wrong. A 9.1% weighted rushing success rate isn’t just bad, it’s historically bad.

Since 2009, the worst Colts rushing performance was a 2014 game against Dallas when the Colts were curb-stomped 42-7. In that game, the offense managed to put up 1 rushing yard. That’s not a typo. 1 yard for 0% wRSR. The next worse Colt rushing game after that? This one.

Of the 4,992 regular season games played since 2009, a 9.1% wRSR is tied for the 41st worst performance of any team. This effort was so bad, that I was sure it was the worst by any team this year. But in week 4, the Steelers rushed 10 times for 19 yards earning a 9.0% wRSR. They scored 14 points.

CONCLUSIONS & NEXT MATCH-UP

I was, and still am, adamantly against Reich going for it on 4th and 4 against the Texans, but I have no problem with him going for it this week. In fact, I think he should have gone for the 4th & 1 where he punted. The numbers were on his side but the team (including the coach) just didn’t execute.

And that’s true for the rest of the game. The offense just didn’t execute. Actually it was beyond that, they looked diseased and traveling to Houston to play one of the league’s best defenses may not be the best medicine.

Houston isn’t as strong against the pass as Jacksonville but they are still very good holding QBs to a 9th lowest ANY/A (6.1). From a run perspective, they are ranked 4th in wRSR against, which is even better than the Jags (5th).

Last time, the Colts managed to put up 34, absolutely gouging the Texans in the second half. Maybe Luck can find some of that magic again.