Everybody’s Got a Price: What is Andrew Luck’s Value on the Trade Market?

On a recent episode of the Around the NFL podcast, the hosts were discussing trades they would like to see happen when one of the hosts, Chris Wesseling, pitched out a shocking idea. He proposed that the Colts trade Andrew Luck to the Browns. In exchange, the Browns would send picks 1, 4, 33, 35, 63, 65 and a 2019 first round pick to the Colts.

In context for those who don’t listen to that podcast, Wesseling is not generally a sensationalist. This suggestion was more than a little bit facetious because one of the other hosts is a Browns fan. He also doesn’t detail the terms of the trade beyond the first round picks, but I added the rest because we know Luck is worth more than those two picks.

All the same, the conversation got me thinking. If the Colts don’t feel confident that Luck can be in top form for a long time into the future, would it make sense to even entertain such an idea? I can tell you that my first inclination was to dismiss it out of hand. I want Andrew Luck under center for the Colts.

However, when you start looking at just what this trade would look like, it bears at least examining. So here is how the Colts draft would look in this situation in the first three rounds:

Round 1: 1^st, 3^rd, 4^th picks

Round 2: 33^rd, 35^th, 36^th, 63^rd picks

Round 3: 65^th, 67^th picks

This is all before any draft day trades would be executed. If Chris Ballard is not confident about Luck’s long-term health and likes a quarterback in this draft class, he would have the first overall pick at his disposal to get a replacement. He could then trade back the 4^th pick to a QB needy team like Buffalo and get another first-round pick. That would be 4 total for those of you keeping track.

It could legitimately give the Colts the chance to add a franchise quarterback, a blue chip pass rusher, an impact linebacker, and a standout offensive lineman. In the first round. Then, all you would have at your disposal are 4 picks in the 2^nd round to choose from deep linebacker and running back classes and fill out roster depth with quality NFL caliber players. Additionally, you’d be adding a second first-round pick in the 2019 draft, which would give you even more blue-chip talent next year for a roster that would still be in need of it.

The idea leaves me nearly sick to my stomach. Like I said, I want Andrew Luck to be the Colts quarterback. However, if the front office’s evaluation of these quarterbacks concludes that one of them will be a star, they would be giving themselves the opportunity to get them as well as grab a ton of talent both in this draft and the next. As risky as it might be, the upside is a dramatically improved young roster.

Let me be clear, I am not advocating for a trade. For me, this was more an exercise in attempting to see if there was any amount of upside that would allow me to reconcile myself with the idea of trading away a healthy Andrew Luck. I still feel like it would be too difficult for me to accept.

However, with the information that is available in front of you, I want to know what you think. Like me, you may have an emotional reaction to even the idea of trading Andrew Luck. But given the uncertainty of his longevity or even if he will return at all, would the potential upside be enough to persuade you to take it?