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Towards the end of the 2017 season, Vegas had Russell Wilson as the #2 candidate for league MVP. At that time, there were a lot of articles written claiming he should win it outright or at least be Offensive Player of the Year.
Two things caught my eye about those articles. First, they were written prior to the 42-7 beatdown the Rams handed the Seahawks at Centurylink in week 15. And second, they used the percentage of offense that Wilson generated as support of their claim. Here is one such article written after the end of the season:
Wilson was responsible for an astonishing 86 percent of Seattle’s total offensive output for the season, which is an NFL record . . . also logged three out of the four total rushing touchdowns for Seattle, making him responsible for 37 of 38 offensive scores by the Seahawks in 2017.
Okay, 2 things:
1) The 86% of offense quoted in that article (and many others) is wrong. It neglects to account for sack yards and after adding those in, the total is actually 80.6%. It isn’t a critical point because that is still an NFL record but it was bothering the hell outta me.
2) This is a bizarre thing to measure.
It has nothing to do with how good of a season a QB has had, but rather it is a measure of a poor run game, usually on a pass-centric team. And since teams that trail accumulate passing yards while minimizing rushing yards, it is also somewhat a measure of a poor defense.
Wait a minute . . . lots of passes, poor run game, bad defense . . . that sounds oddly familiar. Now I’m intrigued.
If performing well while carrying the team is criteria for MVP, then perhaps Luck should have gotten a little more love in 2016. Here are the side by side stats for Luck’s 2016 and Wilson’s 2017 season. Since the Wilson MVP talk died down after week 15, these are weeks 1 through 14 only.
QB comparison
| Player | Year | Rating | YPA | TD Rate | Int Rate | % of Offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Rating | YPA | TD Rate | Int Rate | % of Offense |
| Luck | 2016 | 95.3 | 7.5 | 5.6% | 2.2% | 79.5% |
| Wilson | 2017 | 95.5 | 7.5 | 6.1% | 2.3% | 81.4% |
Wilson has the slight edge in TD rate, but everything else is basically the same. Of course the Colts were 6-7 at the time while Seattle was 8-5 so maybe that had something to do with no MVP talk.
Let’s explore this more by looking at the top 10 QBs in this “stat” since 2000(1):
QB % of Offense
| Player | Year | Pass Yds | Sack Yds | QB Rush Yds | Total QB Yds | Total Team Yards | QB % of Total | Psr Rating | Rush DVOA | Rank | Def DVOA | Rank | Season Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Pass Yds | Sack Yds | QB Rush Yds | Total QB Yds | Total Team Yards | QB % of Total | Psr Rating | Rush DVOA | Rank | Def DVOA | Rank | Season Wins |
| R.Wilson | 2017 | 3983 | -322 | 586 | 4247 | 5269 | 80.60% | 94.4 | -0.12 | 23 | -0.04 | 13 | 9 |
| J.Kitna | 2006 | 4208 | -386 | 156 | 3978 | 4946 | 80.40% | 79.9 | -0.23 | 32 | 0.11 | 28 | 3 |
| M.Stafford | 2016 | 4327 | -216 | 207 | 4318 | 5421 | 79.70% | 93.2 | -0.17 | 25 | 0.19 | 32 | 9 |
| B.Bortles | 2015 | 4420 | -312 | 310 | 4418 | 5568 | 79.30% | 87.9 | -0.17 | 28 | 0.1 | 26 | 5 |
| A.Rodgers | 2011 | 4636 | -211 | 257 | 4682 | 5918 | 79.10% | 120.6 | 0.06 | 7 | 0.09 | 25 | 15 |
| M.Stafford | 2017 | 4446 | -272 | 98 | 4272 | 5419 | 78.80% | 98.4 | -0.2 | 30 | 0.04 | 19 | 9 |
| M.Ryan | 2012 | 4719 | -210 | 141 | 4650 | 5906 | 78.70% | 99.1 | -0.17 | 30 | -0.03 | 12 | 14 |
| T.Romo | 2012 | 4903 | -263 | 49 | 4689 | 5994 | 78.20% | 91.3 | -0.09 | 24 | 0.07 | 23 | 8 |
| A.Luck | 2016 | 4240 | -268 | 341 | 4313 | 5521 | 78.10% | 96.5 | 0.01 | 9 | 0.13 | 29 | 8 |
| M.Ryan | 2013 | 4515 | -298 | 55 | 4272 | 5490 | 77.80% | 89.5 | -0.07 | 21 | 0.14 | 29 | 4 |
| AVERAGE | 95.1 | -0.12 | 22.9 | 0.08 | 23.6 | 8.4 |
I question if making a list where Kitna and Bortles cracked the top 5 is actually an accomplishment.
On average, these are good passing QBs, who put up good efficiency numbers (avg rating 95), while the rush game and defenses were towards the bottom of the league (avg of 23rd and 24th in DVOA).
It’s sort of like a perfect storm is needed to make the list.
So, if this is a measure of a QB carrying their team, then which QB has carried his team the most(2)?
QB Career % of Offense
| Player | Games | Team Yds | Team TDs | QB Net Pass Yds | % of Total | QB Rush Yds | % of Total | QB Yds | % of Total | Rank | QB Pass TDs | QB Rush TDs | QB % of Tm TDs | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Games | Team Yds | Team TDs | QB Net Pass Yds | % of Total | QB Rush Yds | % of Total | QB Yds | % of Total | Rank | QB Pass TDs | QB Rush TDs | QB % of Tm TDs | Rank |
| A.Luck | 70 | 25,825 | 185 | 18,085 | 70.0% | 1,442 | 5.6% | 19,527 | 75.6% | 1 | 132 | 14 | 78.9% | 1 |
| M.Stafford | 125 | 44,917 | 307 | 32,914 | 73.3% | 949 | 2.1% | 33,863 | 75.4% | 2 | 216 | 14 | 74.9% | 6 |
| B.Bortles | 62 | 20,957 | 132 | 13,943 | 66.5% | 1,411 | 6.7% | 15,354 | 73.3% | 3 | 90 | 7 | 73.5% | 8 |
| C.Newton | 109 | 37,969 | 283 | 23,126 | 60.9% | 4,312 | 11.4% | 27,438 | 72.3% | 4 | 158 | 55 | 75.3% | 4 |
| A.Rodgers | 148 | 54,163 | 437 | 36,169 | 66.8% | 2,671 | 4.9% | 38,840 | 71.7% | 5 | 314 | 25 | 77.6% | 2 |
| R.Tannehill | 77 | 25,144 | 165 | 16,855 | 67.0% | 1,065 | 4.2% | 17,920 | 71.3% | 6 | 106 | 6 | 67.9% | 23 |
| P.Manning | 234 | 88,538 | 714 | 62,328 | 70.4% | 531 | 0.6% | 62,859 | 71.0% | 7 | 487 | 16 | 70.4% | 17 |
| M.Ryan | 158 | 57,953 | 410 | 39,964 | 69.0% | 1,019 | 1.8% | 40,983 | 70.7% | 8 | 260 | 6 | 64.9% | 32 |
| D.Brees | 249 | 97,013 | 759 | 67,762 | 69.8% | 790 | 0.8% | 68,552 | 70.7% | 9 | 489 | 19 | 66.9% | 27 |
| D.Carr | 62 | 20,513 | 146 | 14,110 | 68.8% | 365 | 1.8% | 14,475 | 70.6% | 10 | 103 | - | 70.5% | 16 |
| D.McNabb | 154 | 52,546 | 360 | 33,905 | 64.5% | 3,143 | 6.0% | 37,048 | 70.5% | 11 | 227 | 30 | 71.4% | 14 |
| K.Cousins | 62 | 22,393 | 151 | 15,359 | 68.6% | 383 | 1.7% | 15,742 | 70.3% | 12 | 99 | 13 | 74.2% | 7 |
| J.Winston | 45 | 16,402 | 100 | 10,992 | 67.0% | 516 | 3.1% | 11,508 | 70.2% | 13 | 69 | 8 | 77.0% | 3 |
| A.Brooks | 90 | 29,013 | 190 | 18,768 | 64.7% | 1,536 | 5.3% | 20,304 | 70.0% | 14 | 123 | 13 | 71.6% | 11 |
| R.Wilson | 96 | 34,077 | 242 | 20,571 | 60.4% | 3,276 | 9.6% | 23,847 | 70.0% | 15 | 161 | 16 | 73.1% | 9 |
Shocker. Since 2000, no QB has accounted for a higher percentage of offensive production for their team (both yards and TDs) than Andrew Luck.
It’s interesting that some QBs are making this list because of their legs (Newton, Wilson) and some solely by their arm (Manning, Brees).
CONCLUSIONS
- Luck needs help. He has really had to shoulder the load. Get it? See what I did there?
- Welcome Russell Wilson into the “this is what it looks like when your team can’t rush and your defense isn’t one of the greatest of all time” club.
- I wish it were September.
- YPC is a crap stat (that wasn’t addressed here but I like to drop reminders).
FOOTNOTES
1) QBs must have played at least 14 games in the season and only games played were used to calculate team total yards and TDs
2) Only data since 2000 is included. QBs must have played a minimum of 30 career games and only games played were used to calculate team total yards and TDs.