clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Oddsmakers set over/under on Colts 2018 win total, odds of Luck and Hilton as yardage leaders

New, comments

As if the 2018 season wasn’t already looking to be an intriguing one, the odds for some of the Colts’ season results are increasing the interest for some.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts-Training Camp Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

We all knew that the Indianapolis Colts weren’t going to get much love on expected win totals, with or without Andrew Luck under center. But, Luck is back and will play. Now, the focus appears to largely be on the questions surrounding the team’s defense, and probably concerns over Luck’s durability.

There are literally an endless amount of bets with the casual gambler’s most enjoyable plays coming on Super Bowl prop bets. However, if casual isn’t exactly how you’d describe your affinity for making wagers, then there is quite a list you’ll want to get a look at.

There’s the odds of whether Andrew Luck will start Week 1 or not, the chances of Colts’ rookies Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines and Darius Leonard will land rookie of the year honors on their respective sides of the ball, all the way down to if Luck’s backup, Jacoby Brissett, will lead the league in passing yards.

You even have the ability to wager on everything from “Will any game end in a tie?” to “Will any players be suspended for kneeling during the National Anthem? Yes, more of that in my life, please!

These are just some of the bets available at mybookie.ag, but there are a few more that I think are particularly interesting for Colts fans if they’re being objective about their expectations at this point in the rebuild.


Colts win total | over/under 7.5 wins

via mybookie.ag

I have to believe this is fairly simple to gauge whether or not the Colts will at least be a .500 team in 2018. Quite honestly, I think Luck makes this roster an instant 8-win team regardless of the defense, his playmakers or any coaching inefficiencies.

Just look at the last six years, with a intelligent division of the first three years of Luck’s career versus the last three. Luck plays 48 of 48 games, has no known physical limitations and the team wins 33 of those games.

Over the last three seasons, Luck has played in 22 of 48 games and the team wins 20. This doesn’t seem nearly as difficult to project the Colts at least to be a .500 team. On the other hand, the division has gotten better, the Colts will play 4 of 2017’s top 15 overall defenses and, of course, there is always the unknowns when it comes to injuries.


Odds Andrew Luck will lead NFL in passing yards: 20/1

via mybookie.ag

As much as we believe Luck should challenge for the league lead in passing yards, he’s never done it even when he’s been fully healthy. He has led the league in touchdown passes (2014) once, but a lot will have to go right for Luck to surpass those annually at the top of the yardage leaders.

Luck’s best season in this respect, was that same 2014 season in which he passed for 4,761 yards, landing him at third in the league. That total would have placed him fifth in 2012, third in 2013, fourth in 2015 and fourth in 2016. Had he put up a season like in 2014 last season, though, he would have indeed been tops in the league, by nearly 200 yards even.

Mybookie doesn’t necessarily feel like the smart money is on Luck right now — which makes sense with all things considered — although his odds have risen from 25/1 just since camp got under way. These odds would earn you a $2,000 return on a $100 bet plus your money back. Betting is dangerous, but there’s money to be made on the Colts this year if you’re a degenerate. Consider it a term of endearment.

We can point to the Colts theoretically having a much better offensive line this year, which we expect to accompany a more effective running game and some very interesting playmakers at receiver. But, we don’t know much of anything right now and this one might be a little riskier in my eyes, albeit, very possible just the same.


Odds T.Y. Hilton will lead NFL in receiving yards: 16/1

via mybookie.ag

He’s done it once, he can do it again. At least that would be my mindset if I were Hilton. Although mybookie is giving Hilton some reasonable odds to have a shot at it this year, it would likely deserve the best season of his career in order to attain it if recent years are any indication.

Over the past 5 seasons, the average league-leader in receiving yards finished with 1,639 yards. Hilton’s best season was in 2016 when he accrued 1,448 yards which did lead the league, however, there have been 12 individual seasons in that time span with more than 1,448 yards.

In short, Hilton would probably need to average 20 yards per reception while maintaining his average of 81 receptions throughout the season. This, in order to reach the average league-leader’s total over that five-year span. On the other hand, he could also just catch 100 balls and equal his average from 2017 (16.9 YPR) — that would be cool too.

I don’t think I would say that if Luck leads the league in passing yards that Hilton will necessarily follow with league-leading output. However, it makes more sense to me that if Hilton does end up leading the league in receiving yards, it’s quite likely that Luck leads the NFL in passing yards as well.


Odds Colts will win AFC South: 3.8/1

via mybookie.ag

Here’s the one that will likely not be decided until the final few weeks of the season. If everything is equal, and there aren’t year-changing injuries on any AFC South squad, I think it’s fair to say each team has a legitimate shot to come out on top. With that said, I get why the Colts aren’t picked to win the division.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have their defense that they really showcased last season. Marcus Mariota is believed to have a ton of potential and the Tennessee Titans’ are an improving roster. The Houston Texans are a scary defense when all of the pieces are in place and they’ve got massive expectations for Deshaun Watson.

But, the Colts have the best quarterback in the division — hands down — and an offensive line that is worlds better on paper than anything they’ve put out on the field in years.

Each team has their obvious weaknesses, though, as well. The Colts and Titans have a new coaching staff, the Jaguars have Blake Bortles and the Texans have been one of the most banged up teams (like the Colts) over the past several seasons.

How you can expect the Colts to bring up the caboose with Luck on the field is beyond me. As I mentioned before, though, I get picking one of the other teams to win the division, but not for the Colts to end up being the doormat yet again. One thing is for sure, the division is in a much better place, competitively, than it’s been in several years.

For starters, with each of the divisional teams, the coaching looks to be in a better place. The quarterbacks, collectively, are a better group and have quality building blocks in place to keep the division a challenging one for the foreseeable future.


More Colts 2018 season bets:

  • Will the Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs?

Yes: 13/4 | No: 11/50

  • o/u 7.5 Regular Season Wins
  • Odds to win:

Super Bowl: 55/1

AFC Championship: 25/1

  • Offensive Rookie of the Year:

Nyheim Hines: 55/1

Jordan Wilkins: 80/1

  • Defensive Rookie of the Year:

Darius Leonard: 28/1

  • Will Andrew Luck start Week 1 for the Colts?

Yes: 1/3 | No: 2/1

  • Jacoby Brissett to lead the NFL in Passing Yards: 80/1
  • Marlon Mack to lead the NFL in Rushing Yards: 50/1
  • TY Hilton – 1050.5 Receiving Yards (O/-140 | U/+110)
  • TY Hilton – 6.5 Touchdowns (O/U both at -115)
  • How many games will it take Adam Vinatieri to break the NFL career points record?

o/u 8.5 Games