Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Drinking during the 4th quarter for enjoyment and not necessity? Weird.
Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Indianapolis Colts had their first greater than 1 score blowout win of the season and it was a joy to watch.
What is a 79% DSR made of? 5 scoring drives, 80% redzone TDs and 23 first downs. There were only 2 first downs via penalty, so the offense came by it honestly.
Sacks killed 3 drives that averaged 12 yards, but there isn’t much other bad news.
The passing game was limited volume-wise but it was above average in overall efficiency (12th EPA/ply).
Notice that Jacoby Brissett’s passing depth was far more aggressive this week (6th aDOT), which is a good thing to see. Unfortunately, he didn’t have much success on the long throws connecting mostly on shorter passes (20th aYd/cmp).
This is reflected in poor yardage efficiency (18th YPA, 20th NY/A) but by success rate, his % of good plays ranked well (11th wPSR, 9th 1st/db). So some good and bad news there.
Rushing on the other hand is only good news. The 2nd best success rate (wRSR), 12 first downs, 3 TDs, 9 explosive rushes and the most yardage and EPA per carry of any team.
That’s just crazy good.
CONCLUSION AND NEXT MATCH-UP
On the year, Football Outsiders ranks the Colts offense 17th in DVOA (20th pass, 7th rush). This was a great offensive effort to get a lagging offense back on track.
Thursday night is the Houston Texans and their 24th by DVOA defense. They are weak against the pass (25th DVOA, 23rd Adj PPD, 24th DSR, 23rd EPA/ply), so this is an excellent opportunity for Brissett. He had a career day against them in week 7.
The Texans are strong against the run (10th DVOA, 8th wRSR) and with Mack sidelined, the active RBs will have their work cut out for them.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65739170/usa_today_13680149.0.jpg)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392455/2019_11_IND_Drive_Chart.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392021/2019_wk_11_Team_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19391865/3DC.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392022/2019_wk_11_Pass_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392023/2019_wk_11_Rush_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392024/2019_wk_1_11_Team_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392025/2019_wk_1_11_Pass_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392027/2019_wk_1_11_Rush_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392029/2019_wk_6_11_Team_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392031/2019_wk_6_11_Pass_Stats_Offense.png)
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19392032/2019_wk_6_11_Rush_Stats_Offense.png)