Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Stats for the 2019 Season. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
Sometimes the scoreboard lies. In week 14, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Indianapolis Colts final score showed an impressive 35 points, but that tally hid a very unimpressive offensive effort.
7 of the Colts points came from a defensive score and another 17 from short fields provided by the defense (turnovers) and special teams (punt return). On drives that started in their own territory, the Colts could only put up 10 points on 9 drives.
- Ability to move the ball downfield? 29th in DSR, 28th in 1st/ply.
- Average value per play? 22nd in EPA/ply.
- % of Plays that were successful? 29th in wTSR.
That’s an offense that struggled while backing into points.
The Buccaneers outstanding run defense put the onus on Jacoby Brissett to deliver through the air. Overall, he didn’t.
Loved the deep passing. Hated everything else.
This was not surprising. Running against the #1 run defense by DVOA is difficult to say the least. Remove Brissett’s scramble runs and you are left with a designed run game that totaled only 4 first downs and 49 yards on the day.
CONCLUSION AND NEXT MATCH-UP
Many people will point to the scoreboard and claim that I have no idea what I am talking about. To those people, I say re-watch the game and keep a tally of all the good plays the offense made. You’re not going to run out of fingers.
As pennance for such a bad performance, the Colts get to go to the Superdome and play the New Orleans Saints and their 7th ranked defense (by weighted DVOA). Hooray, we get to be embarrassed in prime time.
This one’s not going to be fun.